Scenarioplanning - social futures

Capitalism and ecology

The defining contradiction of capitalism
Capitalism wants or needs what it cannot have: that is, limitless growth on a finite planet. This ecological predicament is the defining contradiction of capitalism in the 21st century, insofar as growth is now causing the problems that growth was supposed to be solving (Sam Alexander, 2018).

Policies for a Post-Growth Economy  
... signals of change ... ... 2016.pdf

Environmental Performance Index, (EPI)

Why Growth Can’t Be Green
New data proves you can support capitalism or the environment—but it’s hard to do both.

Leuenberger and Mehdi: Can Industry Go Truly Green? ... 

Limits to Growth

Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update 
Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis L. Meadows 2004
... Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. 

Klimaforandringer og geopolitik - isfri nordvespassage  

Canada's New Shipping Shortcut ... 

USA - Climate Wars

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines
Michael E. Mann. With a foreword by Bill Nye. Columbia University Press. 2012.
... The ongoing assault on climate science in the United States has never been more aggressive, ... ... 

Al Gore 2006: An Inconvenient Truth  
... An Inconvenient Truth is a 2006 American documentary film


Kreibich, Rolf  (2006): Zukunftsforschung, Berlin: 
Insitut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologieberwertung
(ArbeitsBericht 23/2006) ... 


Dittrich, Monika, Stefan Giljum, Stephan Lutter and Christine Polzin (2012) Green Economies Around the World:
Implications of resource use for development and the environment, Vienna: Sustainable Europe Research Institute

Dobbs, Richard, Jeremy Oppenheim, Fraser Thompson, Marcel Brinkman and Marc Zornes (2011) Resource
Revolution: Meeting the World’s Energy, Materials, Food and Water Needs, London: McKinsey Global Institute

Ellen MacArthur Foundation (2013) Towards the Circular Economy: Economic and Business Rationale for an Accelerated
Transition, Ellen MacArthur Foundation. 

Ellen MacArthur Foundation (2014) Towards the Circular Economy III: Accelerating the scale-up across global supply
chains, Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

European Commission (2015) Circular Economy Strategy
Implementation of the Circular Economy Action Plan. 2018 Circular Economy Package. ... 

European Commission 2018: A Monitoring Framework on progress towards a circular economy at EU and national level. It is composed of a set of ten key indicators which cover each phase – i.e. production, consumption, waste management and secondary raw materials – as well as economic aspects – investments and jobs - and innovation. ... 

European Commission 2018: A Report on Critical Raw Materials and the circular economy that highlights the potential to make the use of the 27 critical materials in our economy more circular.

Fischer-Kowalski, Marina and Mark Swilling (2011) Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from
Economic Growth, Nairobi: UNEP.

Giljum, Stefan and Christine Polzin (2009) ’Resource Efficiency for Sustainable Growth: Global Trends and
European Policy Scenarios’, Background Paper, Vienna: Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI).

Giljum, Stefan, Monika Dittrich, Stefan Bringezu, Christine Polzin and Stephan Lutter (2011) Resource use and
resource efficiency in emerging economies, SERI/Wuppertal Institute, Vienna: UNIDO.

Global Footprint Network (2012) ‘World Footprint’,
world_footprint/, accessed on 11 March 2015.

Groothuis, Femke (2014) New Era. New Plan. Fiscal Reforms for an Inclusive, Circular Economy, Austerlitz, The
Netherlands: Ex’tax.

Group of 7 (2015) ‘Think Ahead. Act Together’, Leader’s Declaration G-7 Summit, ... pdf

Halonen, Tarja and Jacob Zuma (2012) Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing - United Nations
Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability - Overview, New York: United Nations.

Hinterberger, Friedrich, Stefan Giljum, Ines Omann, Nicole Polsterer, Andrea Stocker, Leisa Burrell, Christoph

Campregher, Daniela Fuchs and Franziska Hartwig (2013) Green Growth: From Labour to Resource Productivity,
Vienna: Sustainable Europe Research Institute.

Humphreies, Marc (2013) Rare Earth Elements: The Global Supply Chain, Washington, DC: Congressional Research

Lee, Bernice, Felix Preston, Jaakko Kooroshy, Rob Bailey and Glada Lahn (2012) Resources Futures, London:
Chatham House

Pezzini, Mario (2012) ‘An Emerging Middle Class’, OECD Yearbook 2012: Better Policies for Better Lives, OECD Publishing.

Remmen, Arne, Kasper Remmen Dirckinck-Holmfeld, Christian Seeberg Braun, Jan Boyesen Andersen and Trine Pipi Kræmer (2008) Environmental Innovations in the Nordic Mobile Phone Industry - Green Markets and Greener Technologies (GMCT), Nordic Council of Ministers, TemaNord.

United Nations (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Global Environmental Outlook, 4th Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Washington, DC: Island Press.

United Nations (2015) ‘Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25 September 2015
70/1  - Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’
... We are determined to end poverty and hunger, in all their forms and
dimensions, and to ensure that all human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity
and equality and in a healthy environment. ... “The future we want” (resolution 66/288, annex). ... pdf 

UNIDO (2010) Renewable Energy in Industrial Applications - An Assessment of the 2050 Potential, Vienna: UNIDO.

UNIDO (2011a) UNIDO Green Industry Initiative for Sustainable Industrial Development, Vienna: UNIDO.

Van Berkel, Rene (2007) ‘Cleaner Production and Eco-Efficiency’, in Dora Marinova, David Annandale and John
Phillimore (eds.) Handbook on Environmental Technology Management, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

von Weizsa¨cker, Ernst, Karlson ‘Charlie‘Hargroves, Michael H. Smith, Cheryl Desh and Peter Stasinopoulos (2009)
Factor five. Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Improvements in Resource Productivity, London:

Watson, Robert T., A.H. Zakri et al. (2005) Living Beyond Our Means: - Natural Assets and Human Well-Being;
Statement from the Board, Washington, DC: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

World Risk Society

World at Risk 
Ulrich Beck 2007. English ed. Polity Press 2009. ... 

World Risk Society by Ulrich Beck
Review: ... the distribution of benefits, is replaced by the distribution of dangers. These dangers are the unintended consequences of industrial society such as nuclear accidents, bio-hazards, BSE etc. ... 

Cradle to cradle

Environment and technology - Education for Sustainable Development

McDonough, W., & Braungart, M. ( 2002 ). Cradle to cradle: Remaking the way we make things. New York, NY : North Point Press. 

United Nations . ( 1987 ). Our common future: Report on the world commission on environment and development. New York, NY: United Nations.

United Nations . ( 1992 ). Agenda 21, Rio Declaration, Forest Principles . Conference on Environment and Development. New York, NY. 

Kopnina, H . ( 2013 ). Evaluating Education for Sustainable Development (ESD): Using Ecocentric and Anthropocentric Attitudes toward the Sustainable Development (EAATSD) scale. 
Environment, Development and Sustainability, 15 ( 3 ), 607 – 623. 

Porritt, J . ( 2005 ). Capitalism: As if the world mattered. London, Earthscan. 

Shellenberger, M ., & Nordhaus, T . ( 2007 ). Break through: From the death of environmentalism to the politics of possibility . New York, NY : Houghton Mifflin.

UNESCO. ( 2005 ). United Nations decade of education for sustainable development (2005–2014): International implementation scheme ( p . 32 ). Paris, UNESCO.  

Vare, P ., & Scott, W . ( 2007 ). Learning for a change: Exploring the relationship between education and sustainable development. Journal of Education for Sustainable Development , 1 ( 2 ), 191 – 198. 

Wood, J . ( 2010 ). Metadesign: The design practice that designs itself . In T. Inns (Ed.), Designing for the 21st century: Interdisciplinary methods and findings ( pp . 101 – 115 ). Farnham, UK: Gower publishing limited. 

Technology education's and sustainable global futures  
Environment, ethics and cultures: design and technology education's contribution to sustainable global futures (2015)
Serie: International technology education studies: Volume 13.
Kay Stables and Steve Keirl Goldsmiths, University of London, UK. ... pdf


Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis
Brahma Chellaney. Rowman & Littlefield, 2013.
... This pioneering and authoritative study considers the profound impact of the growing global water crunch on international peace and security ... ... 

Climate change

Global warming controversy  
The global warming controversy concerns the public debate over whether global warming is occurring, how much has occurred in modern times, what has caused it, what its effects will be, whether any action should be taken to curb it

Global warming denial

Ecosystems and biodiversity

Marine biodiversity–ecosystem functions under uncertain environmental futures 
Anthropogenic activity is currently leading to dramatic transformations of ecosystems and losses of biodiversity. 
Anthropogenic activities continue to cause significant global climate change (IPCC 2007).
Partly as a consequence of climate change, and also as a direct result of human activities (e.g. harvesting, habitat destruction and pollution), there has been a significant and rapid decline in global biodiversity (Vitousek et al. 1997; Sala et al. 2000). The speed of this decline has been estimated to be over 1000 times greater than rates of extinction calculated from the fossil record (Lawton & May 1995; Pimm et al. 1995, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). 
The rate of sea temperature rise is predicted to increase over the next decades, with the estimated rise in the mean surface temperature for the end of the twenty-first century lying between 1.1°C and 6.4°C (IPCC 2007).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 2007
The fourth assessment report for the IPCC Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Scenarios for the year 2100 
Sala O. E., et al. 2000: Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.
Science 287, 1770–1774 (doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770).

Extinction rates 
Lawton J. H., May R. M. 1995: Extinction rates. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Earth's ecosystems 
Vitousek P. M., Mooney H. A., Lubchenco J., Melillo J. M. 1997: Human domination of Earth's ecosystems.
Science 277, 494–499 (doi:10.1126/science.277.5325.494)


Miljø, kultur og politik

Globalization and the ecological crisis
Elmar Altvater 1999: "Restructuring the space of democracy: the effects of capitalist globalization and the ecological crisis on the form and substance of democracy" in Global Ethics and Environment, Editor Nicholas Low.

Miljø, forskning og politik

N. Oreskes, E. M. Conway, Merchants of doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming, New York, NY:Bloomsbury Press, 2010.

A. M. McCright, S. T. Marquart-Pyatt, R. L. Shwom, S. R. Brechin, S. Allen, "Ideology capitalism and climate: Explaining public views about climate change in the United States", Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 21, pp. 180-9, Nov. 2016.

 D. Hicks, "Scientific controversies as proxy politics", Issues in Science and Technology, vol. 33, no. 2, 2017.

J. Howe, Behind the curve: Science and the politics of global warming, Seattle, WA:Univ. Washington Press, 2014.

 J. Farrell, "Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change", Proc. National Academy of Sciences, vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 92-7, Nov. 2015.

 C. Boussalis, T. Coan, "Text-mining the signals of climate change doubt", Global Environmental Change, vol. 36, pp. 89-100, Jan. 2016.

G. Supran, N. Oreskes, "Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977–2014)", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 12, no. 8, Aug. 2017.

J. Worland, Climate change used to be a bipartisan issue. here’s what changed



The New Geography: How the Digital Revolution Is Reshaping the American Landscape
Joel Kotkin  20000. 

Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier
Edward Glaeser 

The End of the Suburbs: Where the American Dream Is Moving  
Leigh Gallagher 2014

Climate, Security and Geopolitics 
Rethinking Geopolitics: Climate Security in the Anthropocene
Simon Dalby 2013.

Patrick Bigger and Benjamin D. Neimark, Weaponizing nature: The geopolitical ecology of the US Navy’s biofuel program, Political Geography, 60, (13), (2017).

Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv, Tensions Between Environmental, Economic and Energy Security in the Arctic, Northern Sustainabilities: Understanding and Addressing Change in the Circumpolar World. 

Daniel Abrahams and Edward R. Carr, Understanding the Connections Between Climate Change and Conflict: Contributions From Geography and Political Ecology, Current Climate Change Reports, 3, 4, (233), (2017). 

Philip Conway, Back down to Earth: reassembling Latour’s Anthropocenic geopolitics, Global Discourse, 6, 1-2, (43), (2016).

Sami Moisio, The Wiley Blackwell Companion to Political Geography, (220), (2015).

Simon Dalby, Geoengineering: The Next Era of Geopolitics?, Geography Compass, 9, 4, (190), (2015). 


The Shock of the Anthropocene: The Earth, History and Us
Christophe Bonneuil, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. Verso, 2016. ...
Review: ... Readers of Marx & Philosophy Review of Books may be familiar with the “eco-Marxism” practiced over the past two decades by scholars such as Paul Burkett, John Bellamy Foster and Jason W. Moore, ... ... 

The Shock of the Anthropocene: The Earth, History and Us
Christophe Bonneuil, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. Verso, 2016. 
Part Three, “What Histories for the Anthropocene?” presents a series of seven counter-narratives: 
1: “Thermocene: A Political History of CO2”:
2: “Thanatocene: Power and Ecocide”:
3: “Phagocene: Consuming the Planet”: Rise of “consumerism”
4: “Phronocene: Grammars of Environmental Reflexivity”:
5: “Agnatocene: Externalizing Nature, Economizing the World”:  
6: “Capitalocene: A Combined History of Earth System and World-System”:  
7: “Polemocene: Resisting the Deterioration of the Earth Since 1750”: ... ...

Capital and labour 

Anselm Jappe (Sassari)
Marx and the ‘two-fold nature’ of labour: the ‘pivot’ of his critique of capitalism 

Labour, a ‘rational abstraction’? Robert Kurz’s substance of capital and resolving the labour aporia in Marx ...

Genetic engineering

Miljø og teknologi - Bioteknologi og fødevareproduktion 

Sådan fungerer CRISPR  
CRISPR er et genetiske værktøj, der kan ændre på organismers gener.
Med CRISPR-teknologien kan man udrydde sygdomme, skabe super-afgrøder og lave forbedringer på menneskefostre. ... 

Genome editing tools 
Genome editing or genome engineering is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism.

CRISPR genome editing tools  
Thanks to CRISPR, Global Rice Yields Will Increase Significantly 
Increased rice yields by as much as 31% with CRISPR-genome editing.
By 2025, ARK estimates that CRISPR-based agriculture will increase the global agriculture industry by $170 billion.
FinTech company and Investment Advisor focused on Disruptive Innovation.

CRISPR-Cas9 mediated genome editing in rice, advancements and future possibilities  
The successful application and development of CRISPR tools for genome editing in rice will help in regulating gene expression, gene discovery, rice functional genomics and creating new improved traits in rice. ... 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (​IPCC)
IPCC  2007:Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policy Makers, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  

Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis 
Kosow, Hannah: Methods of future and scenario analysis : overview, assessment, and selection criteria / Hannah Kosow ; Robert Gaßner. DIE Research Project “Development Policy : Questions for the Future”. – Bonn : Dt. Inst. für Entwicklungspolitik, 2007. ... 2008.pdf

Sunstein C. 2009, Worst-Case scenarios, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.