Scenarioplanning - social futures


Guy Standing 2014: A Precariat Charter. From Denizens to Citizens ... 

Siden er under konstruktion.

AI og politik

A Global Civic Debate on Governing the Rise of Artificial Intelligence ... ...

How Companies Can and Will Likely Respond to Smart Governance Policies ...

Global AI Initiative   
The AI Initiative is an initiative of The Future Society incubated at Harvard Kennedy School and dedicated to the rise of Artificial Intelligence.

Politik og økonomi  

Taxing Robots: Will it Help or Hurt Jobs?
There’s a real lack of solutions to preventing the seismic shift robots will have on the economy. We examine two potential options: Universal Basic Income and a tax on robots.
We examine two potential options: Universal Basic Income and a tax on robots. ...

Cloud Time
Rob Coley and Dean Lockwood 2012 .
... This book maps capitalisms mobilization of cloud computing in its bid to archive and enclose the future.
The Cloud, ... actually constitutes a strategy of vitalist post-hegemonic power,  ... colonizing the future through a new temporality of control.

Cloud Time - Reviews 
... It’s a pessimistic thesis, but there is a kind of joy in the writing. ~ Simon O’Sullivan, Author of 'Art Encounters Deleuze and Guattari' (2005), 'On the Production of Subjectivity' (2012) and co-editor of 'Deleuze, Guattari and the Production of the New' (2008).


Open Future section of The Economist 
The Economist’s global conversation on markets, technology and freedom in the 21st century.

We need a post-liberal order now - Yuval Noah Harari
The international, rules-based system is collapsing. Overhauling it means combining national identity with a global ethos.
...  the “Nationalist International” envisions the world as a network of walled-but-friendly fortresses. 
... we need to create a global safety-net to protect humans against the economic shocks that AI is likely to cause. ...

Tech C.E.O.s Are in Love With Their Principal Doomsayer
The futurist philosopher Yuval Noah Harari thinks Silicon Valley is an engine of dystopian ruin. So why do the digital elite adore him so?
... the big tech companies are destroying the idea of a sovereign individual with free will. ... 

Our society is being hijacked by technology.
What began as a race to monetize our attention is now eroding the pillars of our society: mental health, democracy, social relationships, and our children.


Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in San Francisco 
There is a need for a global and trusted space where leading technology companies, dynamic start-ups, policy-makers, international organizations, regulators, business organizations, academia and civil society can collaborate to develop the agile policy norms and partnerships needed to stimulate the enormous potential of science and technology, deliver rapid growth and generate sustainable, positive impact for all. ...

Industrial companies see the massive value of AI in the coming decade
HPE surveyed members of various industrial verticals to learn what effect AI has in the industrial sector today and is expected to have by 2030
AI is a key component of the 4th industrial revolution, driving the transition from automation to autonomy
Of 858 respondents, 61% stated that they were already engaged with AI
Companies expect AI to grow revenues by 11.6% while simultaneously increasing margins by 10.4% ...  

Politisk teknologi

Automating Inequality - "digital poorhouse"
Automating Inequality: How High-Tech Tools Profile, Police, and Punish the Poor Virginia Eubanks 2018.
... Virginia Eubanks argument is that the use of automated decision-making in social service programs creates a "digital poorhouse" that perpetuates the kinds of negative moral judgments that have always been attached to poverty in America.
Eubanks proposes a Hippocratic oath for data scientists, whereby they would vow to respect all people and to not compound patterns of discrimination." ... 
Reviews: Naomi Klein: "This book is downright scary." ... ...

Virginia Eubanks: How High-Tech Tools Profile, Police, and Punish the Poor ...

The people's platform: taking back power and culture in the digital age
Astra Taylor.
... we need to look ahead and recognize the forces that are shaping the development and implementation of technology - economic forces in particular. ... pdf

Politik, kodning og jura

Debunking the Software Patent Myths  
Software Patents: IBM's Role in History 
Patents & Copyrights
When Will People Take Software Patents Seriously? 
A Brief History of Patents (It started in Italy in the 15th century)
Trademarks: Apple paid $30 million to use the name "Apple" ... 

Google Deep Mind’s Bogus AI Patent Filings ... 


A basic income for all: crazy or essential?
Birnbaum, Simon 2017
Growing socio-economic inequalities, automatization, and the precarization of labour markets, with a larger proportion of workers depending on more temporary and insecure forms of employment have provided fertile soil for basic income initiatives.

Basic Income in the Capitalist Economy: The Mirage of ‘Exit’ From Employment 
... Basic income effectively grants all (potential) workers an exit option from an employment relation that fails to take her interests into account. It gives them the “power to say no”, as argued by Karl Widerquist. ... 

An Ombudsman for Future Generations, Legitimate and Effective?
Beckman, Ludvig & Fredrik Uggla 2017.
Institutions For Future Generations,  Iñigo González-Ricoy and Axel Gosseries (red.), Oxford: Oxford University Press. 117-134. ... 

Robots create jobs – new research 
Results by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
In Germany, the rise in the use of machines has allowed employment to grow by 1%. This development looks set to continue in future: based on details from companies surveyed, the ZEW estimates that further automation and digitalisation in industry will generate a 1.8% rise in employment by 2021.

Robot density  
At 309 units per 10,000 employees, robot density in German manufacturing industry is the third highest worldwide.

The London School of Economics (LSE) study entitled Robots at Work
Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels 2018


European parliament calls for robot law, rejects robot tax  
European lawmakers for EU-wide legislation to regulate the rise of robots, including an ethical framework for their development and deployment and the establishment of liability for the actions of robots including self-driving cars.
They rejected a proposal to impose a so-called robot tax on owners to fund support for or retraining of workers put out of a job by robots.
The report’s author, MEP Mady Delvaux, said she was disappointed that lawmakers “refused to take account of possible negative consequences on the job market”. ... 

International Federation of Robotics (IFR) 
The decision to reject the robot tax was hailed by the robotics industry, which says it would stunt innovation. “The IFR believes that the idea to introduce a robot tax would have had a very negative impact on competitiveness and employment,” said the Frankfurt-based International Federation of Robotics. ... 

International Federation of Robotics (IFR)
The IFR forecasts 15% average annual growth in industrial robots and up to 25% growth in professional service robots by 2020.
Collaborative robots that can work alongside humans will start to make their mark in a wide range of industries such as manufacturing and logistics.

Mady Delvaux



Importing Political Polarization?
The ideological divide in American politics is at a historic high. DW-Nominate scores (Poole and Rosenthal, 1985 and 1991), which rank congressional legislators on a liberal-conservative scale according to their roll-call votes, show that the voting gap between congressional Democrats and Republicans started widening in the mid 1970s and is now larger than at any point since the series began in 1879 (McCarty et al., 2006).1 A sizable rightward shift among congressional Republicans and a modest leftward shift among congressional Democrats has left few centrists in either party.

Our democracy no longer represents the people. Here's how we fix it  
Larry Lessig. TEDxMidAtlantic 2015. ... 

The Work Ahead
Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century
John Engler and Penny Pritzker 2018. ... pdf

Deep Mind AI ethics board 2014 ... artificial intelligence research firm DeepMind was acquired by Google for a reported £400m. As part of the acquisition, Google agreed to set up an ethics and safety board to ensure that its AI technology is not abused. ... 

Google Deep Mind’s Bogus AI Patent Filings 
Ben Goertzel 2018 
... Check this one out, for instance:  a patent filing for RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORKS, ... 
... He also notes “Heckel's Principle of Dealing with Big Companies: There is no such thing as a free lunch; unless you're the lunch.”
Google has never been a patent troll and their goal in filing these bogus patent applications may well be purely defensive -- to protect themselves against Facebook or IBM or whomever doing the same first.
This is a reminder and example of why we need a mostly decentralized and open AI ecosystem, such as we’re building toward with SingularityNET -- and with our newly forming Decentralized AI Alliance.  
... even a group of really brilliant, good-hearted and open-minded people, acting within a global mega-corporation, cannot avoid getting sucked into processes that guide AI advance in directions that contradict the common and overall good. ... 

Who Owns Your Medical Data? ... 

Why did Tesla Give Away Patents for Free?
An Analysis of the Open-Technology Strategy from an Operational Perspective
Battery-based electric cars vs hydrogen fuel-cell cars 
... Toyota countered Tesla’s move by opening up 5,600 of its fuel-cell patents as well. ... Panasonic is more cautious in investments and tries to “wait out” the technological uncertainty. ... 

The End of Power: From Boardrooms to Battlefields and Churches to States, Why Being in Charge Isn't What It Used to Be, written by Moisés Naím

The End of Power 
“It’s not just that power shifts from one country to another, from one political party to another, from one business model to another, Naim argues; it’s this: 'Power is decaying.

Internet, politics and democracy   
Evgeny Morozov expresses skepticism about the popular view that the Internet is helping to democratize authoritarian regimes, arguing that it could also be a powerful tool for engaging in mass surveillance, political repression, and spreading nationalist and extremist propaganda.

Morozov, E. 2011: The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom. 
Morozov, E. 2013: To Save Everything, Click Here.


The Crisis of Social Reproduction and the End of Work  
Dr. Helen Hester 2018
... This article examines the changing organisation of social reproduction in high-income societies, and outlinesthe emerging crisis of care constituted by the retreat of the state, the stagnation of wages, and the ageing of the population. The articleproceeds to set out a postwork vision of care work that responds to this crisis. ... 

How Democracy Ends  
David Runciman 2018 ... 

Bezold, Clement. (2009). Aspirational futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 81-90.
Clement Bezold founder of the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) ... 

Wright, Erik Olin: Envisioning Real Utopias ... pdf