Scenarioplanning - social futures

Indhold - Emner
Danmark, Siri Kommissionen.
Employment and Emerging Technologies.
The Future of Work. 

The future of work

The future of work and welfare states
Bent Greve 2017: Technology and the future of work: The impact on labour markets and welfare states. Edward Elgar Publishing. ... ... 

AI and the Workplace

AI​ ​Now​ ​2017​ ​Report 
Alex Campolo et al.

Ifeoma Ajunwa, Kate Crawford and Jason Schultz, “Limitless Worker Surveillance,”California Law Review 105, No. 3 (June 1, 2017).

Ted Greenwald, “How AI Is Transforming the Workplace,” Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2017, sec. Business, ... 


Automatisering får arbejdspladser til at forsvinde – både på landet og i byerne
Nicolai Kristensen. Professor MSO, cand.oecon., ph.d.
... McKinsey og OECD estimerer, at 40 procent af alle arbejdstimer i Danmark med den eksisterende teknologi kan automatiseres inden 2055, muligvis allerede inden 2035. ... 
Nicolai Kristensen ... 

Arkitekturpolitisk salon: Hvad er planen for Danmark?
Engang kunne nogle af svarene findes i Landsplanredegørelsens grundige analyser og politiske udmeldinger. Som dokument findes Landsplanredegørelsen stadig, men den er efterhånden løsrevet fra visionerne om et Danmark i balance og en mere bæredygtig fremtid. 
Ellen Højgaard Jensen, direktør, Dansk Byplanlaboratorium
Svend Erik Rolandsen, byudviklingschef, COWI
Boris Brorman Jensen, ph.d. & arkitekt, MAA28. november 2018 
v/ Dansk Arkitektur Center og Dansk Byplanlaboratorium

The Future of Jobs 2018  
The Future of Jobs report provides tools which can support responses to the critical questions confronting businesses, governments and workers in the horizon up to 2022.

Robots and jobs - short term

Robotics will create more jobs than they destroy  
A.I. and robotics will create almost 60 million more jobs than they destroy by 2022, report says.
Developments of machines and automation software in the workplace could create 58 million new jobs in the next five years, according to a report from the World Economic Forum.
The outlook for job creation is more positive today because companies better understand what kind of opportunities are available to them due to developments in technology, according to WEF. There would also be "significant shifts" in the quality, location and format of new roles, the report found.
WEF report "The Future of Jobs 2018. ... 

Debate: Robots and Jobs

Atkinson, R.D. (2013), “Stop Saying Robots Are Destroying Jobs – They Aren’t”,
MIT Technology Review, 3 September.
... there is no logical relationship between job growth and productivity.
USA: ... The reason why job growth slowed after 2000 was largely demographic. 
... Brynjolfsson and McAfee’s mistake comes from considering only first order effects of automation. ...

David Rotman 2013: “How Technology is Destroying Jobs. ... 

Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee: Race Against the Machine.

USA decline  
Atkinson, R.D. and Stephen J. Ezell:  Innovation Economics: The Race for Global Advantage
... The authors are right to warn that America’s leadership in several areas has eroded much more rapidly than most Americans think. 
...  innovation is the product of ecosystems. ... collaboration between government and industry. 
... making STEM education a national priority and pursuing a 21st century growth agenda. ...

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) ... 

MIT: Technologyreview: How Technology Is Destroying Jobs ... 

Superclusters: winners in global innovation race - SIS EGIZ
... Clustering has become an academic subject only in late 1980s, as the success of
Northern Italian clusters, created by family SMEs, were »discovered« by the
economists. ... The next generation of super-clusters. 
McKinsey Digital innovation figure tries to map innovation clusters around the world, grouping them into one of four different categories: "
hot springs," "dynamic oceans," "silent lakes," and "shrinking pools." ... pdf 

Where will the world’s primary centers of innovation be? 
What’s next in the knowledge economy? ... Irving Wladawsky-Berger on knowledge creation. Think Venice and Florence in the transition from the Middle Ages to the Renaissance. ... pdf 

The Economic Value of Artificial Intelligence 
Irving Wladawsky-Berger 
... AI front-runners will gain an enormous competitive advantage through their ability to leverage this rich supply of customer data to shape product developments and business models.

Sizing the prize - PwC’s Global Artificial Intelligence Study: Exploiting the AI Revolution
What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise?
... The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost). ... 

Networked: The New Social Operating System 
Lee Rainie, Barry Wellman. MIT Press 2012.
... The future of networked individualism. ... 


2062: The World that AI Made  
Toby Walsh. La Trobe University Press 2018.
... How do we make the right choices today to ensure our future is bright? ... 

Machines That Think: The Future of Artificial Intelligence    
Toby Walsh. Prometheus Books 2018
... Will automation take away most of our jobs? ...

It's Alive!: Artificial Intelligence from the Logic Piano to Killer Robots   

Business Forecasting 
Morlidge, S., and Player, S. Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting.
John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2010.

System Dynamics Modeling, its concept of causality and
particular relevance for providing the Balanced Scorecard
thinking with a dynamic analytical framework
Erland Hejn Nielsen and Steen Nielsen 2018. ... pdf 


Remaking of Journalism  
Breaking News: The Remaking of Journalism and Why It Matters Now Hardcover – 6 Sep 2018
Alan Rusbridger. Canongate Books 2018. 
... why quality journalism matters now more than ever. ... 

Think tanks  
Akademiet for de Tekniske Videnskaber 
Pew Research Center
World Economic Forum

Andrew McAfee
Carl Benedikt Frey
Daniel Susskind
Daron Acemoglu
David Autor
Erik Brynjolfsson 
Jim Dator (wiki)
Michael A. Osborne 

Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies

The Futures of Work project  - Foresight Alliance LLC 
The Futures of Work project reviews forecasts and scenarios for the evolution of work over the next twenty years.
Unlike most work foresight projects, it takes a global view, considering the implications for everyone from the connected virtual worker to the subsistence farmer. ... 2016.pdf 


Siri Kommissionen  
IDA har sammen med folketingsmedlem for Radikale Venstre Ida Auken taget initiativ til Siri Kommissionen, der bl.a. skal kortlægge, hvordan Danmark kan udnytte udviklingen inden for kunstig intelligens og den digitale disruption til vækst og flere job.

DataEthics - Workshop, er afholdt
Etiske spørgsmål og udfordringer knyttet til anvendelse af kunstig intelligens.
v. Thomas Ploug, Aalborg Universitet
We need an algorithm watchdog!
v. Sandra Wachter, Oxford University

IDAs Energivision 2050

Fremtidens teknologier  
... cloud teknologi og mobilt internet er de teknologiske drivere ... The Future of Jobs. World Economic Forum 2016. ... fremtidens_teknologier ... .pdf

Det danske arbejdsmarkedet i 2025
Brug for 156.000 flere private medarbejdere i 2025
... stik imod et forslag fra Forenklingsudvalget. ... ... pdf


The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries - A Comparative Analysis 
... we find that, on average across the 21 OECD countries, 9 % of jobs are automatable. ... ... Economy.pdf

OECD’s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC)
Arntz, Gregory and Zierahn (2016) estimate that just 9% of jobs are at a high risk of being automated. 
Denmark, Japan and Sweden spend a comparatively large percentage of their GDP on ICT investment, signalling that they may well have already
automated several tasks or jobs (Arntz, Gregory and
Zierahn, 2016).
Workers with a secondary- and tertiary degree 
Across all countries, workers with a lower level of
education are at the highest risk of displacement.
While 40% of workers with a lower secondary degree
are in jobs with a high risk of job automation, less than 5% of workers with a tertiary degree are. Thus,
automation could reinforce existing disadvantages
faced by some workers (Berger and Frey, 2016; Arntz,
Gregory and Zierahn, 2016). ... Economy.pdf

Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn (2016), “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD countries: A Comparative Analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris,

Berger, T. and C. Frey (forthcoming), “Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalization, Deindustrialization and the Future of Work”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Mokyr, J., C. Vickers and N. Ziebarth (2015), “The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is this Time Different?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 31-50.

OECD (2016), “Automation and Independent Work in a Digital Economy”, Policy Brief on The Future of Work, OECD Publishing, Paris. ... Economy.pdf


Carsten Sørensen - London School of Economics 
Focused on two strands:
Enterprise Mobility Book  
Tiny Technology with Global Impact on Work
Research into digital infrastructure innovation
Carsten Sørensen ...

Enterprise Mobility  
C. Sørensen  2011: Enterprise Mobility: Tiny Technology with Global Impact on Work (Technology, Work and Globalization). 
Palgrave Macmillan. ... ... 

Portable Benefits in the 21st Century
The Aspen Institute 2016. 
THE FUTURE OF WORK INITIATIVE is a year-long nonpartisan effort to identify concrete ways to strengthen the social contract in the midst of sweeping changes in the 21st-century workplace and workforce ... pdf


AI are affecting jobs  
 “Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy” is a clear-eyed look at how fast-developing AI and automation technologies are affecting jobs, and it offers a litany of suggestions for how to deal with the upheaval. 
... It estimates that automated vehicles could threaten or alter 2.2 million to 3.1 million existing U.S. jobs. ... ... 

The Work Ahead
Machines, Skills, and U.S. Leadership in the Twenty-First Century
John Engler and Penny Pritzker​ 2018. ... pdf

James Manyika et al., Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of
, McKinsey Global Institute, 2017. 
... The analysis suggested that advanced economies will create sufficient new jobs to offset the impact of automation by 2030. Globally, however, the workforce transitions ahead will be very large. Between 75 million and 375 million people may need to switch occupational group by 2030 due to automation, ... ... ... PDF

Daron Acemoglu

Americans think automation will likely disrupt a number of professions – but relatively few think their own jobs are at risk. 
Some workers report that they already have been impacted by automation. In total, 6% of U.S. adults say they have ever personally lost their job, or had their wages or hours reduced, because their employer replaced elements of their position with a machine, robot or computer program.
The youngest adults are the most likely age group to report that they have been personally impacted by automation: 13% of Americans ages 18 to 24 have experienced at least one of these impacts.
Americans worry widespread automation will lead to more inequality and leave people adrift in their lives. ... 

Taxes and investments in clean technology
Mirage on the Horizon: Geoengineering and Carbon Taxation Without Commitment
Daron Acemoglu, Will Rafey

Joel Mokyr - Culture of Growth ...
Is Our Economic Future Behind Us? ... 

The 2010 National Organizations Survey:
Examining the Relationships Between Job Quality and the Domestic and International Sourcing of Business Functions by United States Organizations ... pdf 


McKinsey, 2015. Four Fundamentals of Workplace Automation. 
... IBM’s Watson, Rethink Robotics’ Baxter, DeepMind ... ... 


The Future of Employment  
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to
Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013. ... pdf

The Future Is Not What It Used to Be
Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael A. Osborne et al 2016 ... Work_2.pdf


The Future of Work
Bernard Stiegler 2017: Automatic Society: The Future of Work. Wiley. 
... new and alternative economic models will arise, where individuals are no longer simply mined for labour, but also actively produce what they consume. ... ... Stiegler.pdf

Bernard Stiegler, The Decadence of Industrial Democracies: Disbelief and Discredit,
Volume 1 (Cambridge: Polity, 2011). ... Stiegler.pdf

IRI - Centre Pompidou 
Institute for Research and Innovation (Iri):  
To anticipate the mutations of cultural supply and demand that new digital technologies would bring about.

Ars Industrialis

The Neganthropocene 
by Bernard Stiegler ... 

Technologies of Spirit 
A conversation with Bernard Stiegler


TCO:s och TCO-förbundens tankesmedja för framtidens arbetsliv.

What Undercover Boss and The Jetsons Tell Us About the Future of Jobs 
...  Mike Rose: The Mind at Work: Valuing the Intelligence of the American Worker in order to lay to rest the notion that low wageworkers lack creative and social skills. ... 


Technological unemployment 
Brynjolfsson and McAfee suggest that the
technological change  we are experiencing in this
‘second machine age’ not only risks displacing some
specific types of jobs, but could lead to a decline in
overall employment. 
Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W.W. Norton & Company. ... ... 

Economies are delaminating into two groups 
Cowen. Tyler 2013: Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
... Cowen forecasts that modern economies are delaminating into two groups: a small minority of highly educated and capable of working collaboratively with automated systems will become a wealthy aristocracy; the vast majority will earn little or nothing ...

MIT Center for Digital Business ... 

Algorithms and the Future of Work 
B. Shestakofsky. 2017. “Working Algorithms: Software Automation and the Future of Work.” Work and Occupations 44(4):376-423. ... 

B. Shestakofsky. 2015. “More Machinery, Less Labor? Jobs and Technological Change in the 19th and 21st Centuries.”
Berkeley Journal of Sociology 59: 86-90.

Human workers’ role in an automated future ... 

Benjamin Shestakofsky

Benzell, S. G., Kotlikoff, L. J., LaGarda, G., & Sachs, J. D. (2015). Robots are us: Some economics of human replacement (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 20941). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Bergvall-Kåreborn, B., Howcroft, D. (2014) Amazon Mechanical Turk and the commodification of labour. New Technology, Work and Employment 29(3): 213–223. Google Scholar, Crossref, ISI

Bessen, J. (2015a) Toil and technology. Finance & Development 52(1): 16–19. Google Scholar

Bessen, J. (2015b) Learning by doing: The real connection between innovation, wages, and wealth, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
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Both, G. (2014, April 3). What Drives Research in Self-driving Cars? (Part 2: Surprisingly not Machine Learning) ... 

Brynjolfsson, E., McAfee, A. (2014) The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies, New York, NY: W.W. Norton. Google Scholar.

Burrell, J. (2016) How the machine “thinks”: Understanding opacity in machine learning algorithms. Big Data & Society 3(1): 1–12. Google Scholar, SAGE Journals, ISI

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References ... 

David Autor

Technological change, skills and computerization   
David Autor's research  co-authored with Alan B. Krueger and Lawrence F. Katz, studies the effect of skill-biased technological change in the form of computerization on the diverging U.S. education wage differentials and finds evidence suggesting that computerization has increased skill-based wage premia in the U.S. by requiring rapid skill upgrading, which in turn has increased the labor demand for college graduates relative to workers without tertiary education as well as the wage premium associated with a college degree.

Labor Market, Computerization, Inequality and Work Force  
Essays on the Changing Labor Market: Computerization, Inequality, and the Development of the Contingent Work Force: Dissertation Summary.

Geopolitics and globalization, USA-China 
In an influential 2013 study co-authored with David Dorn and Gordon H. Hanson, Autor showed that U.S. exposure to Chinese trade competition "caused higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and reduced wages in local labor markets that house import-competing manufacturing industries".[8] The study nonetheless finds that trade a is a net gain for the population as a whole,[8] and Autor has been an advocate for the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a means to protect U.S. workers.

Autor, D. (2014). Polanyi’s Paradox and the shape of employment growth (National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 20485). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. 
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The Future of Jobs Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. 2016. ... pdf 

Roland Berger scenario 
... firm Roland Berger, of the destruction by 2025 of three million jobs, equally affecting
the middle classes, management, the liberal professions and the manual trades.
Note that the loss of three million jobs represents an increase in unemployment of about
11 points – an unemployment level of 24% ... Stiegler.pdf

Anthropocene - Neganthropocene 
The passage from the Anthropocene to the exit from this period, a period in which anthropization has become a “geological factor” ... We will call this exit the Neganthropocene ...

Marx, too, explored this hypothesis in depth in a famous fragment of the Grundrisse known as the “fragment on machines” or the “section on automation”. 

This is the reality of what Heidegger called the Ereignis of “modern technics”, that is, of the industrial revolution, of the “calculation of the calculable” and of its Gestell, of its enframing. See Martin Heidegger, Identity and Difference. Yet this is precisely what Heidegger fails to think.

What Canguilhem described as the infidelity of the technical milieu44 is what is encountered
as epokhal technological shock by the organological and pharmacological beings that we are as noetic individuals – that is, intellectual and spiritual individuals. This shock and this infidelity derive fundamentally from what Simondon called the phase
shifting of the individual. The phase shift of the individual in relation to itself is the dynamic
principle of individuation ... ... Stiegler.pdf

France Ten Years From Now  
... The claims of France Ten Years From Now are contradicted by Bruegel, the Brussels-based policy research institute that had been headed by Pisani-Ferry ... Jean Pisani-Ferry was appointed Commissioner General of France Stratégie on 1 May 2013. ... Bruegel argues, through Jeremy Bowles and by taking note of the figures given by Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne at the Oxford Martin School, that Belgium could see 50% of its jobs disappear,
England 43%, Italy and Poland 56% ... Stiegler.pdf

Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to
Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013. ... pdf

Bernard Stiegler, The Decadence of Industrial Democracies: Disbelief and Discredit,
Volume 1 (Cambridge: Polity, 2011). ... Stiegler.pdf

Bonneuil and Fressoz, L’Événement Anthropocène, p. 32. And see Paul J. Crutzen and Will Steffen, “How
Long Have We Been in the Anthropocene Era?”, Climate Change 61 (2003), p. 253. ... pdf

Labour market  
Nurvala, J. P. (2015). ‘Uberisation’ is the future of the digitalised labour market. European View, 14(2), 231-239. 

Smith, A., & Anderson, J. (2014). AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs.
Pew Research Center, 6. 

World Economic Forum. (2016). The future of jobs: Employment, skills and workforce strategy  for  the  fourth  industrial  revolution.  World  Economic  Forum,  Geneva, Switzerland. ... 

The Future of Work ... 

The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant 

Peer-to-peer work in the digital meaning society 2050 

Using strategic foresight methods to anticipate and prepare for the jobs-scarce economy ... 


Emerging Technologies - EmTech 
MIT conference


The future of work and the changes - expected and as-yet-unknown - that artificial intelligence, robotics will bring to the US job market. ... 

Robert Solow on inequality  
... in the decades since he began working as an economist in the 1940s, the percentage of people being paid in salaries and wages has dropped from 75 percent to about 62 percent, he said, which is a big driver of inequality as wealth has concentrated among the country’s top earners. ... 

AI i Sverige

Ny rapport: Artificiell intelligens i svenskt näringsliv och samhälle  
Det handlar bland annat om utbildning, forskningsinvesteringar, teknisk infrastruktur, utveckling av regelverk, och ökade drivkrafter för företag och offentlig verksamhet att använda AI. ... ... pdf

Daniel Susskind

Will machines replace humans? 
Daniel Susskind confronts this question and three misconceptions we have about our automated future, suggesting we ask something else: How will we distribute wealth in a world when there will be less -- or even no -- work? ... 

Dependency theory  
Future of Work: Super-exploitation and Social Precariousness in the 21st Century, The: Studies in Critical Social Science Volume 81
(Studies in Critical Social Sciences) Paperback –  2016 by Adrian Sotelo Valencia 
...  towards new social relations that find their technical, political and organizational roots in job insecurity, work rotation and monumental social insecurity. ... 
... Anwar Shaikh has called the First Great Depression of the 21st Century. Shaikh belongs to a growing current of radical political economists who regard the "law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall" (ltrpf) ...  the "structural crisis" of global capitalism a perspective heavily informed by the "advanced dependency theory" of the Brazilian Marxist Ruy Mauro Marini.

The Future of Social Work: Seven Pillars of Practice Hardcover – 1 May 2018

The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity Hardcover – 
by Byron Reese 2018 ... 

The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future Hardcover –   2018
by Andrew Yang ...

The Future (The MIT Press Essential Knowledge Series)  –   2018
by Nick Montfort   
... Nick Montfort argues that the future is something to be made, not predicted. ...  

Spence, Michael 2013: Technology and the Employment Challenge 
... New technologies and globalization ... How should policymakers address the new and difficult labor-market ... 

Job polarization
One result is that today we are seeing a phenomenon called job polarization. This includes a decline in the middle income range, and an increase in either the upper 20 percent or the lower 20 per cent of this scale. It’s a well-documented, 20- to 30-year trend, coupled with rising inequality and a downward trend in routine jobs. Routine jobs are actually disappearing—and the inflection point is in the year 2000, when the routine job decline accelerated. ... 

Beyond Disruption - Technology’s Challenge to Governance
Jim Hoagland, George P. Shultz, James Timbie 2018
...  the rise of post-millennium technologies in today's global society. They contemplate both the benefits and peril  ... ... 
How will the emergence of artificial intelligence affect individual workers in the future? ... ... 

Ulrich Beck

Ulrich Beck (1944 - 2015)
He coined the terms "risk society" and "second modernity" or "reflexive modernization"

The Brave New World of Work 
by Ulrich Beck 2000. Cambridge University Press. ... 

Beck, Ulrich. (2009). World at Risk. Cambridge: Polity Press. 

Beck, Ulrich (1992) Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage. 
Beck, Ulrich (1986) Risikogesellschaft – Auf dem Weg in eine andere Moderne.

Beck, Ulrich & Giddens, Anthony & Lash Scott (1994) Reflexive Modernization.Politics, Tradition and Aesthetics in the Modern Social Order. Cambridge: Polity Press. 



Technology and the Future of Work: The State of the Debate 
Prepared by the Roosevelt Institute for the Open Society Foundations 2015
... Doomsday projections exist, including a 2013 University of Oxford–affiliated study [PDF] that found that 47 percent of U.S. jobs were at risk of disappearing due to technology. ... pdf 

Inequality  Endangers Our Future 
Joseph Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future. W.W. Norton and Company, NY.  2012. 
... politics have shaped the market, and shaped it in ways that advantage the top at the expense of the rest.

Technology and the Middle Class  
David H. Autor and David Dorn, “How Technology Wrecks the Middle Class,” The New York Times, August 24, 2013, ... 

The rise of the gig economy  
Friedman, G. 2014. “Workers without employers: shadow corporations and the rise of the gig economy.” Review of Keynesian Economics 2(2):171-188. 
... A growing number of American workers are no longer employed in ‘jobs’ with a long-term connection with a company but are hired for ‘gigs’ ... ... 

The Third Globalization 
Zysman, J. and D. Breznitz. 2013. “Facing the Double Bind: Maintaining a Healthy and Wealthy Economy in the 21st Century.” In Breznitz, D. &
Zysman, J. (Eds.) The Third Globalization: Can Wealthy Countries Stay Rich in the Twenty-first Century? Oxford: Oxford University Press.
...  they examine the core transformation in the economies of the advanced countries, the character of the challenge from the emerging economies, and the varied policy responses of the advanced countries. ...

Pew Research Center

Pew Research Center, 2014. AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs, s.l.: PEW. 


OECD, 2016. The risk of automation of jobs in the OECD countries. ...

KPMG LLP’s 2017 report “Clarity on Digital Labor” forecasts that technology will perform the job equivalent of about 120 million employees by 2025. ...

Clarity on Digital Labor ... pdf

Alexandra Levit, author of the forthcoming book Humanity Works: Merging Technologies and People for the Workforce of the Future. 

Automation for Jobs

Where machines could replace humans—and where they can’t (yet)
By Michael Chui, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi. ...

The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries
A Comparative Analysis

Melanie Arntzi, Terry Gregoryi and Ulrich Zierahni 2016 
... Overall, we find that, on average across the 21 OECD countries, 9 % of jobs are automatable. ... ... pdf 

Robots, Industry 4.0 and Humans, or Why Assembly Work Is More than Routine Work
Sabine Pfeiffer 2016. Societies 2016, 6(2), 16.
...  the empirical results challenge the dominant view of assembly work as routine tasks that could easily be replaced by robotics.

The Future of Jobs. Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution 
World Economic Forum: Davos, Switzerland, 2016.

Future of the corporation articles ... 

The Truth About Corporate Transformation  
Empirical analysis reveals that conventional wisdom about big, risky change initiatives is often wrong.
Martin Reeves, senior partner in BCG. ...

Kai-Fu Lee: AI will reshape companies

... CEOs are underestimating the workforce reductions that are bound to result. ... 

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order 
Kai-Fu Lee (Sept. 2018) 
... how millions of suddenly displaced workers must find new ways to make their lives meaningful, and how government policies will have to deal with the unprecedented inequality between the "haves" and the "have-nots." ... 

Kai-Fu Lee ... ... CNBC 

Workless Future 
Automation May Lead to a Workless Future for Humans. Here’s How We Can Cope
... universal basic income ...  Shorter work days ... ...

What new jobs will exist in 2035? 
... roughly half of all jobs will be lost to automation in less than two decades. ... 

Basic Human Needs, Foundations of Wellbeing, and Opportunity.

The Social Progress Index  
People's quality of life across four continents

China’s New AI Police Station Won’t Have Humans 
The AI police station will likely focus on vehicle- and driver-related issues, which makes it more analogous to an American Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV)

Människan och maskinen - En essä om Ai och välfärdssystemet
Ekholm, Anders 2017.
Teknikutvecklingen går fort bland spjutspetsbolagen, men det går inte riktigt i samma takt i svensk offentlig sektor. Snarare tvärtom. Denna essä resonerar kring människans tillkortakommanden, och kring hur AI kan tänkas kompensera för dem. Vidare spekuleras i lite olika verksamheters potential till förbättring med hjälp av AI, bland domstolar, vård, skola, omsorg, osv.

Visioner om IKT i arbetslivet.
Från distansarbete till arbete när som helst och var som helst?

Work is becoming increasingly mobile. Probably we will see an evolutionary trend towards greater flexibility, including telework and virtual organizations, as a long-term effect of the IT revolution.
Lundqvist, Torbjörn, 2011. Arbetsrapport 2010:14, Institute for Futures Studies.

Ten books to understand the changing labour market
Robots, sharing economy, digital platforms and gig economy. A recommended reading list to find your way, make the most of opportunities and face challenges

Francesco Seghezzi, The Great Transformation of Work: Impacts on Workers and on Work Relations (Adapt University Press). Work and the person in the fourth industrial revolution, described from the scientific perspective of Adapt centre for studies. ... 

The social construction of facts and artefacts 
T. Pinch, W. Bijker, "The social construction of facts and artefacts: Or how the sociology of science and the sociology of technology might benefit each other", Social Studies of Science, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 399-441, 1984.

S. Jasanoff, S. Jasanoff, "The idiom of co-production" in States of knowledge, London; New York:Routledge, pp. 1-12, 2004.

S. Vallor, "Moral deskilling and upskilling in a new machine age: Reflections on the ambiguous future of character", Philosophy and Technology, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 107-24, Feb. 2014.

N. Kitroeff, "Robots could replace 1.7 million American truckers in the next decade", Los Angeles Times, Sep. 2016.

 C. B. Frey, M. Osborne, The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, 2013.

M. Arntz, T. Gregory, U. Zierahn, The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries, OECD Social, Employment, Migration Working Papers, 2016.

N. Oreskes, E. M. Conway, Merchants of doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming, New York, NY:Bloomsbury Press, 2010.

A. M. McCright, S. T. Marquart-Pyatt, R. L. Shwom, S. R. Brechin, S. Allen, "Ideology capitalism and climate: Explaining public views about climate change in the United States", Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 21, pp. 180-9, Nov. 2016.


AVs vs professional drivers
Economic transition from human-driven to autonomous vehicles
... policies developed to safely promote the adoption of AVs should have complementary policies to facilitate alternative training, retraining, and early retirement for professional drivers, smoothing the economic transition from human-driven to autonomous vehicles. ... robotic systems designed to be inexpensive replacements for expensive human labor and that also happen to be safer than human drivers [31, p. 118].

The hybrid workforce 
L.B. Stone, J. Stone, "People and robotics – the hybrid workforce", 2013. 

The Future of Jobs – Employment Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, 2016.
... Think tanks globally offer STEM jobs and “still unidentified” means as alternatives.

Robots should pay taxes  
S. French, "Bill Gates says robots should pay taxes if they take your job", Market Watch, Feb. 2017.

 G. Voss, "The Second Shift in the Second Machine Age: Automation gender and the future of work" in Our Work Here is Done: Visions of a Robot Economy, London, U.K.:Nesta, pp. 83-93, 2014.


Four fundamentals of workplace automation 
By Michael Chui, James Manyika, and Mehdi Miremadi
... The bottom line is that 45 percent of work activities could be automated using already demonstrated technology. ... 

ACEMOGLU, D., AND D. AUTOR (2011): “Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings,” vol. 4 of Handbook of Labor Economics, chap. 12, pp. 1043–1171. Elsevier.
ACEMOGLU, D., D. AUTOR, D. DORN, G. H. HANSON, AND B. PRICE (2014): “Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in US Manufacturing,” American, Economic Review, 104(5), 394–99.

ACEMOGLU, D., AND P. RESTREPO (2016): “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment,” Working Paper 22252, National Bureau of Economic Research.

ACEMOGLU, D., AND P. RESTREPO (2017): “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets,” NBER Working Papers 23285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

BASKER, E. (2012): “Raising the Barcode Scanner: Technology and Productivity in the Retail Sector,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(3), 1–27

FEENSTRA, R. C., R. INKLAAR, AND M. P. TIMMER (2013): “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table,”. PWT version 9.0 is a database with information on relative levels of income, output, input and productivity, covering 182 countries between 1950 and 2014.

FENG, A., AND G. GRAETZ (2015): “Rise of the Machines: The Effects of Labor-Saving Innovations on Jobs and Wages,” CEP Discussion Papers dp1330, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

FORD, MARTIN. (2009): The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform. 
... What will the economy of the future look like? Where will advancing technology, job automation, outsourcing and globalization lead? ... 

FREY, C. B., AND M. A. OSBORNE (2017): “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254 –280

GOOS, M., AND A. MANNING (2007): “Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 118–133.

GOOS, M., A. MANNING, AND A. SALOMONS (2014): “Explaining Job Polarization: RoutineBiased Technological Change and Offshoring,” American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509–26

GORDON, R. J. (2012): “Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds,” NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

GRAETZ, G., AND G. MICHAELS (2017): “Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?,” American Economic Review, 107(5), 168–73

HEMOUS, D., AND M. OLSEN (2014): “The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation and Income Inequality,” CEPR Discussion Papers 10244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

HOBSBAWM, E. J. (1952): “The Machine Breakers,” Past & Present, (1), pp. 57–70.

KARABARBOUNIS, L., AND B. NEIMAN (2014): “The Global Decline of the Labor Share,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1), 61–103

KROMANN, L., J. R. SKAKSEN, AND A. SORENSEN (2012): “Automation, Labor Productivity and Employment: A Cross Country Comparison,” Discussion paper, Copenhagen Business School.

KRUGMAN, P. (2014): Four observations on secular stagnation chap. 4, pp. 61–68, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. CEPR Press.

MICHAELS, G., A. NATRAJ, AND J. VAN REENEN (2014): “Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-Five Years,”
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 96(1), 60–77.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER (2014): “AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs,” 
The vast majority of respondents to the 2014 Future of the Internet canvassing anticipate that robotics and artificial intelligence will permeate wide segments of daily life by 2025.

SUMMERS, L. H. (2014): Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’ chap. 1, pp. 27–38, Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures. CEPR Press.

TIMMER, M., T. VAN MOERGASTEL, E. STUIVENWOLD, G. YPMA, M. O’MAHONY, AND M. KANGASNIEMI (2007): “EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts Version 1.0,” mimeo, University of Groningen.

The Price of Robots in Six Countries 1990-2005


Economic Singularity

Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities 
Calum Chace 
Chapman and Hall/CRC; 1 edition (1 May 2018). ... ... 

The Economic Singularity  
Calum Chace. ... This book argues that within a few decades, most humans will not be able to work for money. Self-driving cars will probably be the canary in the coal mine. ...

Our Jobless Future: An essay on artificial intelligence and the economic singularity  
Calum Chace. Three Cs (18 Feb. 2018). ... 

Surviving AI 
Calum Chace 2015. Three Cs. ... ... 

The Economics of Singularity  
Takahiro Suzuki. 2nd Edition.
... Distribution of Wealth. Who gains, who loses?
What is the primary factor preventing a future paradise? ... 

5 Years to a New World: AI and the Future of Jobs

Cases: Uber

Uber algorithmic forms of management
Luke Stark and Alex Rosenblat’s research with Uber drivers suggests one model for this approach. By listening to drivers, they identified algorithmic forms of management used by the company. ... ” It will be interesting to see what comes of the recent New York administrative law judge’s ruling, which classified Uber drivers as “employees” under New York law, contrary to Uber’s claims otherwise. 

Uber and Information Asymmetries  
Alex Rosenblat and Luke Stark, “Algorithmic Labor and Information Asymmetries: A Case Study of Uber’s Drivers,”
International Journal of Communication 10 (July 27, 2016): 3758-3784, ...

Uber as employer 
Dana Rubenstein, “State Labor Judge Finds Uber an ‘employer’,”
Politico, May 13, 2017. 
Uber exercised sufficient supervision, direction, and control" over enough aspects of the three drivers to create an "employer-employee relationship." ... Now Uber will have to make unemployment contributions to the state. ... 

Misclassifying workers  
Meet Shannon Liss-Riordanthe lawyer taking on Uber and the rest of the on-demand economy 
... the illegal practice of companies who classify their workers as independent contractors, rather than normal employees, in order to avoid paying them benefits they're owed under federal law. ... look like employees according to the IRS's 20-prong test ... 

George Ritzer - prosumption
... prosumption as activities on the internet and Web 2.0 resemble prosumption much more so than production or consumption individually.
Ritzer, George; Jurgenson, Nathan (2010), Production, Consumption, Prosumption : The nature of capitalism in the age of the digital 'prosumer'.
Journal of Consumer Culture 10:13.


Aneesh, A. (2009). Global labor: Algocratic modes of organization. Sociological Theory, 27(4), 347–370. ... 

Gillespie, T. (2010). The politics of “platforms.” New Media & Society, 12(3), 347–364.

Gillespie, T. (2014). The relevance of algorithms. In T. Gillespie, P. Boczkowski, & K. Foot (Eds.), Media technologies: Essays on communication, materiality, and society (pp. 167–194). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Lee, M. K., Kusbit, D., Metsky, E., & Dabbish, L. (2015). Working with machines: The impact of algorithmic, data-driven management on human workers. In Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM SIGCHI Conference, Seoul, South Korea (pp. 1603–1612). New York, NY: ACM Press. 

Ritzer, G., & Jurgenson, N. (2010). Production, consumption, prosumption: The nature of capitalism in the age of the digital “prosumer.”
Journal of Consumer Culture, 10(1), 13–36. 

Scholz, T. (Ed.). (2013). Digital labor: The Internet as playground and factory. New York, NY: Routledge.

Zwick, D. (2015). Defending the right lines of division: Ritzer’s prosumer capitalism in the age of commercial customer surveillance and big data.
The Sociological Quarterly, 56(3), 484–498. 

References ...