Scenarioplanning - social futures

Internet of Things, IoT.

Think tanks

Gartner Hype Cycle ... ... 

IDC FutureScape  
Worldwide IT Industry Predictions
IT Industry 2017 Predictions ... 
In 2017, IDC and IDG were acquired by China Oceanwide. ... 

Pew Research Center

Amara's law - Hype cycle  
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. ... 

List of think tanks ... 


Automatisering får arbejdspladser til at forsvinde – både på landet og i byerne
Nicolai Kristensen. Professor MSO, cand.oecon., ph.d.
... McKinsey og OECD estimerer, at 40 procent af alle arbejdstimer i Danmark med den eksisterende teknologi kan automatiseres inden 2055, muligvis allerede inden 2035. ... 
Nicolai Kristensen ... 

Arkitekturpolitisk salon: Hvad er planen for Danmark?
Engang kunne nogle af svarene findes i Landsplanredegørelsens grundige analyser og politiske udmeldinger. Som dokument findes Landsplanredegørelsen stadig, men den er efterhånden løsrevet fra visionerne om et Danmark i balance og en mere bæredygtig fremtid. 
Ellen Højgaard Jensen, direktør, Dansk Byplanlaboratorium
Svend Erik Rolandsen, byudviklingschef, COWI
Boris Brorman Jensen, ph.d. & arkitekt, MAA28. november 2018 
v/ Dansk Arkitektur Center og Dansk Byplanlaboratorium

What is technology?  

Dator, Jim, Sweeney, John, Yee, Aubrey. 2014. Mutative Media: Communication Technologies and Power Relations in the Past, Present, and Futures. New York: Springer Press. ... 

Between Derrida and Stiegler 
In his massive multi-volume work, Technics and Time, Bernard Stiegler explores a history of technics as epiphylogenesis--the preservation in technical objects of epigenetic experience.

European tech ecosystem

The State of European Tech 2016: the future is being invented in Europe

Europe has a chance to dominate deep tech 
Politicians spy a chance to attract ‘refugees’ from an increasingly nationalistic US.
... The market value of the entire European tech sector amounts to just 7 per cent of that of the US. ... 

European Unicorns Ranked By Valuation  
The Top Fintech Startups. 
AI & Blockchain Startups Building Govtech In Europe.
Global Tech Hubs.

Timing: Human-level AI

How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment  
Seth D. Baum, Ben Goertzel, and Ted G. Goertzel, 2011. 
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 78, no. 1 (January), pages 185-195.

The End of the Beginning: Life, Society and Economy on the Brink of the Singularity
Ben Goertzel, Ted Goertzel ... ... pdf  738 pages ...

General Purpose Technologies

General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) 
In recent years there has been an upsurge of interest among growth economists in General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). A GPT can be defined as "a technology that initially has much scope for improvement and eventually comes to be widely used, to have many uses, and to have many Hicksian and technological complementarities" (Lipsey et al., 1998a, p. 43). Electricity, steam and information and communications technologies (ICT) are generally regarded as being among the most important examples.

Steam as a General Purpose Technology:
A Growth Accounting Perspective, Nicholas Crafts

Lipsey, R. G., Bekar, C. and Carlaw, K. (1998a), "What Requires Explanation?".
In (E. Helpman, ed.), General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, pp. 15-54.

Lipsey, R. G., Bekar, C. and Carlaw, K. (1998b), "The Consequences of
Changes in GPTs". In (E. Helpman, ed.), General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,
pp. 193-218.

Life sciences

Emerging economic sectors in the third millennium  
Graham T.T. Molitor, (2000) "Emerging economic sectors in the third millennium: life sciences to dominate US economy by 2100", Foresight, Vol. 2 Issue: 5, pp.507-513, ... 

Medical developments and robotics ... automation-robotics

Digital capture of scent and taste

Aromyx is moving taste and scent into the digital world
Aromyx has built a solution for the digital capture of scent and taste – the EssenceChip™ – placing human olfactory and taste receptors onto a disposable biochip, with a digital readout.


Proto-idAge of sail, protoindustrialization, 1400-1765 
First Industrial Revolution First Industrial Revolution 1765-1870 
From hand production methods to machines, new chemical manufacturing and iron production processes. Increasing use of steam power.
Second Industrial Revolution Second Industrial Revolution 1870-1969 
Widespread adoption of telegraph and railroad networks, gas and water supply, and sewage systems. Also included early factory electrification and the advent of the production line.
Diesel power.
Third Industrial Revolution Third Industrial Revolution 1969-1997
The digitization of manufacturing. The rise of electronics, with the transistor and microprocessor, and also the rise of telecommunications and computers. Internet, WWW.
Industrial robots.
Fourth Industrial Revolution Fourth Industrial Revolution 1997-????  
IBM Deep Blue beat G. Kasparov in 1997.
Marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in a number of fields, including robotics, AI, blockchain, nanotechnology and quantum computing.
AI robots. Cloud computing. Digital assistents, bots ...
Future revolutions  Future revolutions v/Nick Bostrom
2040: Human-level artificial intelligence
2075: Superintelligence

The Fourth Industrial Revolution  
Schwab, Klaus (2017) The Fourth Industrial Revolution.
New York: Crown Publishing Group.  

Ab Rahman, Airini; et al. (2017). "Emerging Technologies with Disruptive Effects: A Review" (PDF). PERINTIS eJournal. 7 (2). ... 

Conflict Resolution  
Conflict Resolution in the Fourth Industrial Revolution". OpenMind. Retrieved 2018-02-14.

Industrial revolution 
The term ‘industrial revolution’ has been coined as early as in 1799 by Louis-Guillaurne Otto, which mentioned that France had joined the race to industrialize. ... 

HR, organization and innovation  
McLean, L. D. (2005). Organizational culture’s influence on creativity and innovation: A review of the literature and implications for human resource development. Advances in developing human resources, 7(2), 226-246. 

Learning, organization and innovation
Tran,  T.  (2008).  A  conceptual  model  of  learning  culture  and  innovation schema. Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, 18(3), 287-299. 

Geography and innovation  theory
Corsi,  S.,  &  Di  Minin,  A.  (2014).  Disruptive  innovation…  in  reverse:  Adding  a geographical  dimension  to  disruptive  innovation  theory. Creativity  and  Innovation Management, 23(1), 76-90.

Barriers to innovation  
Zeleny, M. (2012). High technology and  barriers to innovation: From globalization to relocalization. International  Journal  of  Information  Technology  &  Decision Making, 11(02), 441-456. 

User involvement in innovation
Heiskanen, E., Hyvönen, K., Niva, M., Pantzar, M., Timonen, P., & Varjonen, J. (2007). User involvement in radical innovation: are consumers conservative?. European Journal of Innovation Management, 10(4), 489-509.

Sarwar, M., & Soomro, T. R. (2013). Impact of smartphone’s on society. European journal of scientific research, 98(2), 216-226. 

Social theory 
Fuchs, C. (2007). Internet and society: Social theory in the information age. Routledge.

Labour market  
Nurvala, J. P. (2015). ‘Uberisation’ is the future of the digitalised labour market. European View, 14(2), 231-239. 

Smith, A., & Anderson, J. (2014). AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs.
Pew Research Center, 6. 

World Economic Forum. (2016). The future of jobs: Employment, skills and workforce strategy  for  the  fourth  industrial  revolution.  World  Economic  Forum,  Geneva, Switzerland. ... 

Internet  of  Things  and our lives 
How  the  Internet  of  Things  will  change  our  lives,  International  Organization  for Standardization  (2016)

Learning and virtual reality 
Greenwald, S., Alexander Kulik, André Kunert, Stephan Beck, B. Frohlich, Sue Cobb, Sarah Parsons et  al. "Technology and  applications for collaborative learning in virtual reality." (2017): 719-726, International Society of the Learning Sciences. 

Greenwald, S., Alexander Kulik, André Kunert, Stephan Beck, B. Frohlich, Sue Cobb, Sarah Parsons et  al. "Technology and  applications for collaborative learning in  virtual reality." (2017): 719-726.   

Financial infrastructure and blockchain 
McWaters, R., Galaski, R., & Chatterjee, S. (2016). The future of financial infrastructure: An ambitious look at how blockchain can reshape financial services. In World Economic Forum.

References source ... 





IEEE Robotics & Automation Magazine
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine  
Social Implications of Technology

The social construction of facts and artefacts 
T. Pinch, W. Bijker, "The social construction of facts and artefacts: Or how the sociology of science and the sociology of technology might benefit each other", Social Studies of Science, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 399-441, 1984.

S. Jasanoff, S. Jasanoff, "The idiom of co-production" in States of knowledge, London; New York:Routledge, pp. 1-12, 2004.

S. Vallor, "Moral deskilling and upskilling in a new machine age: Reflections on the ambiguous future of character", Philosophy and Technology, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 107-24, Feb. 2014.

N. Kitroeff, "Robots could replace 1.7 million American truckers in the next decade", Los Angeles Times, Sep. 2016.

 C. B. Frey, M. Osborne, The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?, Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, 2013.

M. Arntz, T. Gregory, U. Zierahn, The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries, OECD Social, Employment, Migration Working Papers, 2016.

 N. Oreskes, E. M. Conway, Merchants of doubt: How a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming, New York, NY:Bloomsbury Press, 2010.

A. M. McCright, S. T. Marquart-Pyatt, R. L. Shwom, S. R. Brechin, S. Allen, "Ideology capitalism and climate: Explaining public views about climate change in the United States", Energy Research & Social Science, vol. 21, pp. 180-9, Nov. 2016.

 D. Hicks, "Scientific controversies as proxy politics", Issues in Science and Technology, vol. 33, no. 2, 2017.

J. Howe, Behind the curve: Science and the politics of global warming, Seattle, WA:Univ. Washington Press, 2014.

 J. Farrell, "Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change", Proc. National Academy of Sciences, vol. 113, no. 1, pp. 92-7, Nov. 2015.

 C. Boussalis, T. Coan, "Text-mining the signals of climate change doubt", Global Environmental Change, vol. 36, pp. 89-100, Jan. 2016.

G. Supran, N. Oreskes, "Assessing ExxonMobil’s climate change communications (1977–2014)", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 12, no. 8, Aug. 2017.

J. Worland, Climate change used to be a bipartisan issue. here’s what changed, [online] Available:

AVs vs professional drivers
Economic transition from human-driven to autonomous vehicles
... policies developed to safely promote the adoption of AVs should have complementary policies to facilitate alternative training, retraining, and early retirement for professional drivers, smoothing the economic transition from human-driven to autonomous vehicles. ... robotic systems designed to be inexpensive replacements for expensive human labor and that also happen to be safer than human drivers [31, p. 118].


JASON is an independent group of elite scientists which advises the United States government on matters of science

Jacobsen, Annie 2016. The Pentagon's Brain: An Uncensored History of DARPA, America's Top Secret Military Research Agency. Little, Brown.

ARPA, DARPA, and Jason 
The “Iron Man” project
The “Iron Man” project, better known as TALOS (Tactical Light Operator Suit), was initiated by the Defense Sciences Office of DARPA in 2013. It’s a battery-powered exoskeleton that special forces and Navy SEALs can wear, that allows them to run farther and faster, carry more weight, jump higher, and continue to fight even when wounded. 
As you can see, Jason’s membership has expanded from physicists to marine biologists, biochemists, sociologists, psychologists, economists, zoologists, computer scientists, and many other disciplines. ... 
JASON Defense Advisory Panel Reports​

​JASON was established in 1960. Its work first gained public notoriety as the source of the Vietnam War's McNamara Line electronic barrier.
Vietnam War: ...  report titled "Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Southeast Asia. Paper predicted catastrophic consequences for U.S. global interests as well as for the people and environment of Southeast Asia. Going into great detail, the paper strongly contradicted game-scenario research from RAND that was optimistic about a nuclear option.
JASON also produced early work on the science of global warming and acid rain. Current unclassified research interests include health informatics, cyberwarfare, and renewable energy.
Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Southeast Asia, March 1967 (via Nautilus)
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the military consequences of a U.S. decision to use tactical nuclear weapons in Southeast Asia, under the assumption that the war remains theater-limited and that no strategic exchange occurs.

Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
Freedom of information laws by country

Industrial robots

Fanuc Corp., the world’s biggest maker of industrial robots
FANUC had its beginnings as part of Fujitsu developing early numerical control (NC) and servo systems.
The company name is an acronym for Fuji Automatic NUmerical Control

Solar energy

The World’s Biggest Solar Project Comes With a ‘Batteries Included’ Sticker 
The project is 100 times larger than any other proposed in the world, and features plans to store electricity for use when then sun isn’t shining with the biggest utility-scale battery ever made. ... Cheaper Batteries: Costs are expected to drop in half by 2025 as factories ramp up battery production ... 

World’s largest solar energy project
World’s largest solar energy project will be 100 times bigger than any other on the planet. SoftBank Solar Project, which is set to become the biggest solar farm in the world thanks to a deal signed by Saudi Arabia and Japanese conglomerate company SoftBank‘s Vision Fund. ... 

Crown Prince outlines road map for post-oil era of prosperity 
Prince Muhammad, in his capacity as chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs (CEDA), ARABIA


Wind Wins
While the solar industry has grown, it still accounts for less than 2 percent of U.S. electricity supply and has been outpaced by investments in other green technologies. Wind farms are set to overtake hydroelectric plants next year as the biggest source of renewable energy in the U.S., accounting for more than 6 percent of the nation’s electricity generating capacity, government data show. ... 

Electricity generation from fossil fuels declined in 2017 as renewable generation rose

International Federation of Robotics

Machine learning guide 
This comprehensive guide explains what the concept really means. ... 

Roman Yampolskiy

The Third Industrial Revolution
How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World
Jeremy Rifkin 2011. ... ... 


1946 ENIAC: The first fully electronic computer, it weighed 30 tons and contained 18,000 vacuum tubes.

1959 GEOMETRY THEOREM PROVER: An early artificial intelligence program, GTP solved geometry problems more quickly by eliminating answers that were obviously wrong.

1965 DENDRIAL: Programmed with rules of chemistry, it combined them with logic to figure the molecular structure of chemicals much faster than humans.

1966 ELIZA: By simpy restructuring the user's sentences and spitting them back out, this program mimicked a psycho-therapy session.

1967 MAC HACK: The program became the first meaningfrul chess opponent tho human players, competing against them in a tournament.

1975 SAM: The Script Applier Mechanism could "read" and paraphrase newspaper stories and answer simple questions about their contents.

1970s AARON: The result of mor than 20 years of work by its artist creator, the world's first "nonhuman artist" creates its own paintings without human help. Its works have sold for $2,000. 1990 TIERRA: The program generates evolution in a machine by creating digital creatures and placing them in an electronic environment. Their world, complete with birth, death and mutation, is a virtual mirror of our own.

1994 CHINOOK: A checkers program, it battled the then checkers champ, Florida A&M matho professor Marion Tinsley, to a draw in six consecutive matches. He had lost only nine games since 1955.

1997 THE MARS ROVER: On July 4, NASA'S Mars probe will touch down and release it. It will explore the planet on its own and rpoert back.


The US Military Wants Giant Transformer Robot Subs 
The Aquanaut unmanned underwater vehicle, or UUV, can chug beneath the ocean’s surface for hundreds of kilometers and then transform into a vaguely insect-like robot to perform delicate operations ... 

Terrorists Are Going to Use Artificial Intelligence 
In 2011 and 2012, most believed that the “Arab Spring” revolutions would marginalize jihadist movements. But within four years, jihadists had attracted a record number of foreign fighters to the Syrian battlefield, in part by using the same social media mobilization techniques that protesters had employed to challenge dictators.
Virtual planner” model of terrorism 
... Militant groups later combined easy accessibility to operatives via social media with new advances in encryption to create the “virtual planner” model of terrorism. This model allows online operatives to provide the same offerings that were once the domain of physical networks, including recruitment, coordinating the target and timing of attacks, and even providing technical assistance on topics like bomb-making.
In the 2017 battle for Mosul, for example, the Islamic State (ISIS) dispatched small and agile consumer drones armed with grenades to harry the Iraqi forces assembled to retake the city.
AI already enjoys diverse applications, from products like Apple’s Siri, to voice-to-text, to Facebook’s counter-extremism detection systems
AI arms race  
... Max Tegmark’s book Life 3.0 notes the concern of UC Berkeley computer scientist Stuart Russell, who worries that the biggest winners from an AI arms race would be “small rogue states and non-state actors such as terrorists” ... 

Weaponisation of nanotechnology and biotechnology 

Nanotechnology and Biotech

Nanotechnology: What’s in it for Biotech? ... 

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology 
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, a not-for-profit think tank concerned with the societal and environmental implications of nanotechnology.

Mike Moradi, the NanoMarkets report.

Jamais Cascio, Director of Impacts Analysis at the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN)
Thoughts on the implications of future "nanofactories".

Societal implications of Nanotechnology
In August 2005, the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology announced the formation of a Task Force convened to study the societal implications of this rapidly emerging technology.
Undertaken by the Battelle research organization and the Foresight Nanotech Institute.

Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems ... 

Drexler, K.E.

Drexler, K.E. 1992. Nanosystems: Molecular Machinery, Manufacturing,
and Computation, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: New York (1992). 

Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization
by K. Eric Drexler 2013

HBS. no date. Available on line at
In addition, nanomanipulators
are available from NanoFactory Instruments
(, Omicron (,
and Zyvex ( ... pdf

Hersam, Mark C.; Guisinger, Nathan P.; and Lyding, Joseph W. 1999a.
“Silicon-Based Molecular Nanotechnology,” Seventh Foresight
Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology, 15-17 Oct. 1999, Santa
Clara, CA. ...

National Nanotechnology Initiative  
NMAB. 2006. Committee to Review the National Nanotechnology Initiative, National Materials Advisory Board (NMAB), National Research Council (NRC), A Matter of Size: Triennial Review of the
National Nanotechnology Initiative, The National Academies Press, Washington DC, 2006.  

Blockchain, AI and IoT

The blockchain-enabled intelligent IoT economy
The convergence of AI, blockchain, and IoT 
... We know that blockchain protocols are not designed to heavily store data (they are indeed ledgers, not databases), but they can provide “control points” to monitor data access (Outlier Ventures, 2018).... companies that are working in this space are Golem, iExec, Onai, Hadron, Hypernet, DeepBrain Chain, etc.
Emergence of new marketplaces: a data marketplace ...

Schneier: It's Time to Regulate IoT to Improve Cyber-Security ... 2017

Online Courses for the Digital Economy
Sebastian Thrun. Founder Udacity.

Data marketplaces 

The Global AI Network - By Dr. Ben Goertzel
SingularityNET lets anyone create, share, and monetize AI services at scale.
SingularityNET GHOST-Powered Chatbots allow users to create conversational Agents.

OpenMined is an open-source community developing artificial intelligence.

OpenAI is a non-profit AI research company

The Deep Learning textbook is a resource intended to help students and practitioners enter the field of machine learning in general and deep learning in particular.
The online version of the book is now complete and will remain available online for free.

Quantum computing

Quantum computing explained with a deck of cards | Dario Gil, IBM Research 
We are moving rapidly toward quantum computing. How does the technology work and what does it mean for our future? Scientist Dario Gil, VP of Science and Solutions at IBM, provides clarity on this complex topic.
The MIT Industrial Liaison Program, the MIT Startup Exchange, and Startup Hub Boston. Visit ...