Scenarioplanning - social futures


GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin

National Intelligence Council 2017
The NIC Global Trends project ... pdf

National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) Global Trends reports 
The National Intelligence Council is the U.S. Intelligence Community’s center for long-term strategic analysis.

Danmark og Kina

Kina satser på kunstig intelligens - hvad gør Danmark? - ATV-rapport:

Akademiet for de Tekniske Videnskaber (ATV)
Akademiet for de Tekniske Videnskaber er en uafhængig, medlemsdrevet tænketank.

Danmark skal op i gear, hvis ikke vi skal køres helt bag ad dansen af Kina
Mogens Rysholt Poulsen: “Det er slående, så langt Kina er fremme i den teknologiske udvikling,
Lars R. Enevoldsen ... kineserne er i gang med at bevæge sig fra at være hurtige followers, til at blive en både hurtig- og innovativ nation. 
Rapport v/Akademiet for de Tekniske Videnskaber, ​ATV. ... 


AI and Warfare

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare 
Research Paper. M. L. Cummings 2017.
International Security Department and US and the Americas Programme. ... ... pdf 

Artificial Intelligence and International Affairs: Disruption Anticipated 
Dr Jacob Parakilas et al 2018.  
Kenneth Cukier: The Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence, pp. 29-42. ... 

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots 
Human Rights Watch (2013), ‘Arms: New Campaign to Stop Killer Robots’ ... 

How China is Moving Towards ‘Intelligized Warfare’ 
By Lt Col Ashutosh Verma -  2018
International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ICJAI-2015). 
Autonomy can be built in aerial, terrestrial, amphibious, floating or sub surface platforms and has the potential of shortening the OODA (Observe Orient Decide and Act) loop by several factors. 
... A good indicator of China’s pace of AI research is SCImago Journal and Country ranking. ... 

Industrial Research Institute (2016), '2016 Global R&D Funding Forecast’, supplement to R&D
Magazine, Winter 2016. 

Mayer-Schönberger, V. and Cukier, K. (2013), Big Data: A Revolution That Transforms How We Live, Work and Think,
London: John Murray.

References ... pdf 

The Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence,
Kenneth Cukier 2018. In: Dr Jacob Parakilas et al 2018.  
Several investment banks and consultancies have attempted to forecast the economic
value of applying AI to existing activities by industry and geography. Bank of America
(BoA) Merrill Lynch in 2015 said it expected that in 10 years, robotics and AI would
produce annually an ‘impact value’ of between $14 trillion and $33 trillion, n83. ... 

Economic Singularity  
Nordhaus, W. D. (2015), ‘Are We Approaching An Economic Singularity? Information Technology and The Future of Economic
Growth’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No. 21547. 
... The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace ...  The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.

References ... 

War in the Cyber Age

Sanger, David E. 2018: The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age. Scribe UK. 
... The Perfect Weapon is the dramatic story of a new era of constant sabotage, misinformation, and fear, in which everyone is a target. ... ... 

Great power politics

Why China Cannot Rise Peacefully  
John J. Mearsheimer 2012 ... 

John Mearsheimer  
...  realist school of thought. ... Mearsheimer proposed the theory of offensive realism which describes the interaction between great powers as dominated by a rational desire to achieve hegemony. 
The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (2007).
Why Leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics (Oxford University Press, 2011. 
The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities (Yale University Press, 2018).

Realist school of thought  
It was first outlined by Kenneth Waltz in his 1979 book Theory of International Politics. Alongside neoliberalism, neorealism is one of the two most influential contemporary approaches to international relations. 
Neorealism emerged from the North American discipline of political science, and reformulates the classical realist tradition of E. H. Carr, Hans Morgenthau, and Reinhold Niebuhr.
Neorealism is subdivided into defensive and offensive neorealism.

Offensive realism  
...  It fundamentally differs from defensive realism, as originally put forward by Kenneth Waltz.

Mearsheimer, John (2005). "E.H. Carr vs. Idealism: The Battle Rages On" (PDF). International Relations. 19 (1): 139.

USA global power

In the shadows of the American century: The rise and decline of US global power 
Alfred W. McCoy
... Can the United States extend the "American Century" or will China guide the globe for the next hundred years? McCoy devotes his final chapter to these questions, boldly laying out a series of scenarios that could lead to the end of Washington's world domination by 2030." ... 

AI geopolitics

AI Nationalism - arms race: Three forms of instability: 
There are 3 main ways in which accelerating progress in machine learning could create instability in the international order. 
I use the example of Google, DeepMind and the UK as a specific example of this issue.

Expert predicts ‘AI nationalism’ will change geopolitical landscape  
Ian Hogarth predicts AI nationalism is going to create global instability. ... 

Google AI history
DeepMind, from AlphaGo to AlphaZero
In March 2016, DeepMind developed AlphaGo. 
18 months later, DeepMind released AlphaZero. Unlike AlphaGo, AlphaZero did not use any moves from human experts to train. Instead, it learned solely by playing against itself.

State of AI - #AIreport 
Informed conversation about the state of AI and its implication for the future.
We consider the following key dimensions in our report:
1: Research: Technology breakthroughs and their capabilities.
2: Talent: Supply, demand and concentration of talent working in the field.
3: Industry: Large platforms, financings and areas of application for AI.
4: Politics: Public opinion of AI, economic implications and the geopolitics of AI. ...

Research and Applied AI (RAAIS)
The 4th Research and Applied AI Summit  
The RAAIS Foundation (founded by Nathan Benaich) ...

Krig og AI 

Podcast: Six Experts Explain the Killer Robots Debate 
The current status of LAWS ...

Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War 
Paul Scharre: 
... the automated battlefields ... 

The Future of War: A History 
Lawrence Freedman  2017.  

Future War: Preparing for the New Global Battlefield  
Robert H. Latiff  

The Future of Power  
Joseph S. Nye, Jr.: 
...  To remain at the pinnacle of world power, the United States must adopt a strategy that designed for a global information age. ... ... 

AI definitions 

Artificial intelligence (AI) 
AI is intelligence demonstrated by machines, in contrast to the natural intelligence (NI) displayed by humans.

Machine learning (ML)
ML is a subset of artificial intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) 
RL is an area of machine learning inspired by behaviourist psychology

Deep learning (DL) 
DL is part of a broader family of machine learning methods.

AI definitions: Slide 4-5 
Transferlearning, slide 9.
AI hardware, slide 10-29. ...

10 facts about jobs in the future 
Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project
Social skills, analytical skills and physical skills. ... 

CAGE Framework

The CAGE Distance Framework can be applied to measure the differences between countries.
CAGE stands for Cultural, Administrative, Geographical, and Economic.
These four dimensions of distance provide a way of analyzing differences between countries. 
World 3.0: Global prosperity and how to achieve it. Pankaj Ghemawat. ... pdf
Chapter three ... pdf


East Asia’s Shrinking Cost Advantage. The fraction of global manufacturing done in Asia (measured by value added) jumped from 29% in 2000 to 45% in 2015.  
BCG Henderson Institute is The Boston Consulting Group’s internal think tank. ... 


Stat og verdensmarked

Will global capitalism fall again? 
Jeffry Frieden 2006 ... pdf

The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy
Dani Rodrik. 2011. ...

Explaining the Globalization of Financial Markets: Bringing States Back In 
Eric Helleiner. Review of International Political Economy. Vol. 2, No. 2 (Spring, 1995), pp. 315-341.
Many accounts of the globalization of financial markets over the past three decades explain it as a product of unstoppable technological and market forces. This article emphasizes that the behaviour of states was also of central importance in encouraging and permitting the process.
States are shown to have supported financial globalization in three ways:
(1) granting freedom to market actors through liberalization initiatives;
(2) preventing major international financial crises; and
(3) choosing not to implement more effective controls on financial movements. ... 


DARPA model  
The DARPA model has three elements:
1: Ambitious goals.
2: Temporary project teams.
3: Independence.
Pasteur’s Quadrant entails pushing the frontiers of basic science to solve a well-defined, use-inspired need. Stokes’s matrix. The work in Pasteur’s Quadrant doesn’t exist on road maps. It results in discoveries that upset the current trajectory and can destroy an existing business. ...

Preparing for the future of artificial intelligence
Executive Office of the President National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Technology, 2016. Preparing for the future of artificial intelligence, s.l.: The US Federal Government.

Pasteur's quadrant - Basic and applied research 
Pasteur's quadrant is a classification of scientific research projects that seek fundamental understanding of scientific problems, while also having immediate use for society. ... 

War on Peace: The End of Diplomacy and the Decline of American Influence 
by Ronan Farrow 2018 ...

Closer Than You Think: The Implications of the Third Offset Strategy for the U.S. Army 
by United States Army War College. Amazon Media EU. 

“The Defense Innovation Initiative (DII), begun in November 2014 by former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, is intended to ensure U.S. military superiority throughout the 21st century. 

The DII seeks broad-based innovation across the spectrum of concepts, research and development, capabilities, leader development, wargaming, and business practices. 
An essential component of the DII is the Third Offset Strategy — a plan for overcoming (offsetting) adversary parity or advantage, reduced military force structure, and declining technological superiority in an era of great power competition. 

This study explored the implications for the Army of Third Offset innovations and breakthrough capabilities for the operating environment of 2035-2050. 
It focused less on debating the merits or feasibility of individual technologies and more on understanding the implications — the second and third order effects on the Army that must be anticipated ahead of the breakthrough.”

Chapter 1: The Future Operating Environment and the Third Offset; Chapter 2: The Urgency of the Third Offset; 
Chapter 3: Go and Artificial Intelligence: Potential For Strategic Decision-Making; 
Chapter 4: The Role of Nuclear Weapons in yhe Third Offset; 
Chapter 5: Swarms in the Third Offset; 
Chapter 6: Game of Drones: Strategic Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Command And Control (C2); 
Chapter 7: Integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) Into Military Operations: A Boyd Cycle Framework; 
Chapter 8: Influencing the Rate of Innovation; 
Chapter 9: Implications to Army Acquisition;
Chapter 10: Human-Machine Decision-Making and Trust;
Chapter 11: Leader Development and the Third Offset;
Chapter 12: More Than a Game: Third Offset and Implications for Moral Injury; 
Chapter 13: The Third Offset, Remotely Piloted Systems (RPS), and Moral Hazards; 
Chapter 14: The Ethical Implications of Enhancing Soldiers. ... 

USA Policies: Best Practice for the 21st Century 
Rising to the Challenge: U.S. Innovation Policy for the Global Economy
Af National Research Council, Policy and Global Affairs, Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy, Committee on Comparative National Innovation Policies: Best Practice for the 21st Century.
As the pillars of the U.S. innovation system erode through wavering financial and policy support, the rest of the world is racing to improve its capacity to generate new technologies and products, attract and grow existing industries, and build positions in the high technology industries of tomorrow.

Here’s How the US Needs to Prepare for the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Government indifference toward AI could let the US lose ground to rival countries. But what would a good AI plan actually look like? 
... Jason Furman, author of the 2016 AI report.
... The Trump administration has abandoned this vision ... ...

Obama: My Successor Will Govern a Country Being Transformed by AI ...

Report on the future of AI published by the White House ... 

France is the latest country to bet heavily on AI. Last week, President Emmanuel Macron announced an AI plan that includes $1.6 billion in funding, new research centers, data-sharing initiatives, and ethical guidelines. ...

The most notable national AI plan has come from China, which last year announced a plan to dominate the industry by 2030 (see “China’s AI awakening”). Details of that undertaking are murky, but many billions of dollars will be fed into the industry. And experts there are also debating how the technology might affect the economy and society. ...

Americas regional infrastructure - 7 mega-regions    
... socially and economically, America is reorganizing itself around regional infrastructure lines and metropolitan clusters that ignore state and even national borders. The problem is, the political system hasn’t caught up.
Khanna, Parag 2016: Connectography .Weidenffeld & Nicolson. ... ... 
Reshoring economic activities to rich countries
... Mr Khanna also ignores a trend much discussed by economists: the “reshoring” of certain economic activities to rich countries as fears grow about political instability and as China gets too expensive.
Postindustrielle teknologier og politisk forandring, Bohn 1999. ... 

American Grand Strategy - National Defense University (NDU) 
Forging an American Grand Strategy: Securing a Path Through a Complex Future. Selected Presentations from a Symposium at the National Defense University

Derivatives Bubble 
The Size of the Derivatives Bubble Hanging Over the Global Economy Hits a Record High. Michael Snyder Global Research, May 27, 2014. ... 

Zeihan, Peter 2017: The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America. Publisher: Zeihan on Geopolitics. 
... The American shale revolution does more than sever the largest of the remaining ties that bind America's fate to the wider world. It re-industrializes the United States, accelerates the global order's breakdown, and triggers a series of wide ranging military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. ... 

The “Shale Revolution” refers to the combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that enabled the United States to significantly increase its production of oil and natural gas, particularly from tight oil formations.

Geography, combined with demography and energy
The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disaster. Peter Zeihan 2014. 
... Peter Zeihan examines how geography, combined with demography and energy independence, is paving the way for one of the great turning points in history, and one in which America reasserts its global dominance. ... Zeihan goes on to show how modern demographics have distorted, with America now the only developed country with enough young adults to maintain both economic growth and capital generation beyond 2020. ... 

US power to rule a digital world ebbs away - Evgeny Morozov 2018 
American techno-hegemony 
... the global ambitions of Huawei and ZTE and the tremendous growth of other Chinese players such as Tencent, Baidu and Alibaba, have also forced Washington to do the unthinkable: exercise hard power, rendering its hegemony visible.
... At least, when the tech cold war breaks out in earnest, it won’t be so clear which side represents the true interests of global capitalism ... ...


Kina, AI og geopolitik 

Battlefield Singularity - Elsa B. Kania 2017
Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution, and China’s Future Military Power. 
In July 2017, China released its national-level AI development plan.
... AI could fundamentally change the character of warfare, resulting in a transformation from today’s “informatized” (信息化) ways of warfare to future “intelligentized” (智能化) warfare, ... ...

China national-level AI development plan, July 2017 ... 

USA vil kæmpe mod Kina om global infrastruktur  
... Overseas Private Investment Corp. OPIC. ... 
To Counter China, U.S. Looks to Invest Billions More Overseas ... 

China`s Belt and Road’ Initiative (BRI)
Hong, Yu. 2016. “Motivation behind China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiatives and Establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.” Journal of Contemporary China 1-15.

China and AI 
China’s State Council issued the “Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan” in 2017. 
... setting a goal of becoming a global innovation center in this field by 2030.
China AI milestones ... 

AI to change our lifestyle and jobs in 10 years, says expert 
... “AI plus” is the future of mankind, Zhang Wuxu, general manager of international development at iFLYTEK told CGTN’s World Insight during an interview.
China rolls out three-year program for AI growth
China releases 3-year guidance for Internet plus AI development
China to take lead in AI technology ... 

China plans to nurture at least 5,500 talents in artificial intelligence from top universities to gain a lead in the apex technology as the country aspires to be a top contender in the sector. ... 

China's trillion dollar plan to dominate global trade 
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the most ambitious infrastructure project in modern history. ...

China’s AI Boom Could Be America’s Bust
SenseTime, which develops facial-recognition technology  
2018: Alibaba invested $600 million in SenseTime, raising its valuation to $4.5 billion. ... 
The Future Today Institute

China’s AI national research center - AI research park
...  seeking innovations in military applications, formalizing its existing partnerships with leading corporations and research institutions, and doubling-down on educating its citizens. It plans to create a $150bn industry by the year 2030. ... 

Google and Intel Beware: China Is Gunning for Dominance in AI Chips ... 

China Just Showed Us the Most Human-Like Robots Yet - JiaJia ... ...

Eric Schmidt on AI: 'Trust me, these Chinese people are good'
By 2020 the Chinese will have caught up to the U.S and by 2030 they will dominate the industries of AI. ... 

China Has Its DARPA, But Does It Have the Right People?
China has the institution to fuse civil-military R&D. Now can it attract the necessary talent? ... A major success of the “DARPA model” has been its capacity to fuse the civil with the military; that is, to combine military and civilian institutions and incubate groundbreaking technologies. ... 

The billion-dollar, Alibaba-backed AI company that’s quietly watching people in China
... login using facial recognition. ... 

China’s Strong Arm: Protecting Citizens and Assets Abroad ... 

“Made in China 2025” program  
China has charted out a $300 billion plan to become nearly self-sufficient by 2025 in a range of important industries, from planes to computer chips to electric cars, as it looks to kick-start its next stage of economic development.
Joerg Wuttke, the president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.
Report on “Made in China 2025” by the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a German think tank. ... 

China Labor Watch (CLW) 
Its mission is the defense of workers' rights in China.
2006: CLW publicized the fact that fifteen of Wal-Mart’s China-based supplier factories were under violation for underpaying their workers.
Amazon Blasted Over China Echo Factory Conditions ... 

Creating a Computer Industry Giant: China's Industrial Policies and Outcomes in the 1990s 
Kraemer, Kenneth L. and Dedrick, Jason 2001. UC Irvine Globalization of I.T.
... how China’s shift from technological nationalism to pragmatism has enabled it to develop a domestic PC industry ... ... pdf 

Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the 21st Century 
Giovanni Arrighi  2009. Verso.
Review: Reviewed by Yan Liang, University of Redlands. 

Gallagher, Mary E. 2006: Contagious Capitalism: Globalization and the Politics of Labor in China. Princeton University Press.

Huang, Yasheng S. 2003: Selling China: Foreign Direct Investment during the Reform Era. Cambridge University Press. ...

ReORIENT: Global Economy in the Asian Age
Andre Gunder Frank 1998. University of California Press 
... Andre Gunder Frank asks us to ReOrient our views away from Eurocentrism—to see the rise of the West as a mere blip in what was, and is again becoming, an Asia-centered world. ...

Brodsgaard, Kjeld Erik., and Zheng Yongnian. eds. 2006. The Chinese Communist Party in Reform. New York: Routledge.

Chambers, Collin L., "The People's Republic of China and the Global Class War" (2017). Theses - ALL. 121. ... pdf 

Chu, Yin-wah., and Alvin So. 2010. “State Neoliberalism: The Chinese Road to Capitalism.” In Chinese Capitalisms, edited by Chu Yin-wah, 46-72. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. 

Mulvad, Andreas. 2015. “Competing Hegemonic Projects within China’s Variegated Capitalism: ‘Liberal’ Guangdong vs. ‘Statist’ Chongqing.” New Political Economy.

So, Alvin. 2005. “Beyond the logic of capital and the polarization model: the state, market Reforms, and the plurality of class conflict in China.” Critical Asian Studies 37 (3): 481-494.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
Teo, Esther. 2016. “AIIB kicks off with $72m boost from China.” The Straight Times
Asia (STa), January 17.
... China will pump another US$50 million (S$72 million) into the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). 
... Already, China has an initial subscription of US$29.78 billion in authorised capital stock in the AIIB, out of a total of US$100 billion. ...


Fanuc FIELD platform 
Fanuc is working on FIELD, a new platform and next-generation robot series, but investors don’t seem to be giving it credit. ... 

USA -China

U.S.-China relationship  

Destined for War: Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap? 
Allison, Graham 2017. Scribe Publications.
... Thucydides's Trap: A deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. ... ... 

The Next Great War?
The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict 
Edited by Richard N. Rosecrance and Steven E. Miller 2014.
... They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914—but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences ... will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great war ... ... 

Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?  
Graham Allison and Kevin Rudd debate. 
Thucydides, who wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” ... 

Are China and the US doomed to conflict? | Kevin Rudd
Kevin Rudd asks whether the growing ambition of China will inevitably lead to conflict with other major powers — and suggests another narrative. ... 

When China Rules the World 
Martin Jacques 2009.
The Heat: China UK Strategic Dialogue Pt 2 ... 

Kina er ved at etablere et superkontinent  
Det kinesiske silkevejsprojekt gennem og syd om Asien har samme omfang som Marshall-hjælpen til Europa.
I praksis går arbejdet trægt, men det er stadig det mest omfattende investeringsprogram i verden, og det vil gøre det asiatisk-europæiske kontinent til fremtidens center.
... Zbigniew Brzezinski, talte om ”et superkontinent,” nemlig en ny, global akse mellem Kina og Europa.

Går Trump i Thukydids fælde? ... 

The Borderlands of Southeast Asia: Geopolitics, Terrorism, and Globalization
James Clad, Sean M. McDonald, Bruce Vaughn
Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, 2011. 
...  In particular, the South China Sea has moved from being a rather arcane area of conflict studies to the status of a bellwether issue. ... 

Kuznets vs Schumpeter

Who Was Right? Kuznets in 1930 or Schumpeter in 1939? 
Kleinknecht A., and van der Panne G. 2006. Who Was Right? Kuznets in 1930 or
Schumpeter in 1939? Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security / Ed. by
T. C. Devezas, pp. 118–127. Amsterdam: IOS Press. 

Maddison A. 2007. Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

References ... 

AI, China and USA

Economic gains from AI  
The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost), equivalent to a total of $10.7 trillion and accounting for almost 70% of the global economic impact. ... 

Rise and Fall

Stormagters opkomst og fald, historie 
Portugal, Spanien, Frankrig, Holland, England og USA.

The Rise and Fall of the Wealth of Nations: Long Waves in Economics and International Politics
Manfred Neumann  1997. 
...  It also discusses the idea that a change in the economic leadership of a nation occurs after nations reach the height of their influence and turn away from accumulating capital in favour of distribution of income and wealth. ... 

The Political Economy of Imperialism, Decolonization and Development
Erik Gartzke and Dominic Rohner 2011. 
... Technological shocks enable expansion, while rising labour costs and the dynamics of military technology gradually dilute imperial advantage.
Simultaneously, economic development leads to a secular decline in payoffs for appropriating land, minerals and capital.
Once conquest no longer pays great powers, the systemic imperative to integrate production vertically also becomes archaic. ... 

American Empire: The Realities and Consequences of US Diplomacy
Bacevich, Andrew J.,  (Cambridge, Mass.: University of Harvard Press, 2002).

References ... 

Geopolitics as a concept

The Definition of Geopolitics – The Classical, French and Critical Traditions 
Cohen (2003) notes that intellectuals such as Aristoteles, Montesquieu, Kant, Hegel and Humboldt had an understanding of Geopolitics.
Nonetheless, Geopolitics as a concept emerged much later(Dodds and Atkinson, 2000). ...  

Cohen, Saul Bernard, “Geopolitics of the World System”, Rowman and Littlefield, 2003.

Dodds, Klaus en David Atkinson, “Geopolitical Traditions”, Routledge, 2000.

Flint, Colin, “Introduction to Geopolitics”, Routledge, 2006.

Ó Tuathail, Gearóid, Simon Dalby and Paul Routledge (editors), “The Geopolitics Reader”, Routledge, 2006.

Taylor, Peter J., “Political Geography”, Longman, Third Edition, 1993.

References ...

Geopolitical approaches

Four geopolitical approaches (Mamadouh 1998). 
Based on this journal article: Jones, L., and D. Sage 2009. New directions in critical geopolitics: an introduction Geojournal ... 

Classes and IR

Transnational Classes and International Relations
Kees van der Pijl. Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005. ... pdf

Kees van der Pijl: A trilogy on Modes of Foreign Relations and Political Economy (2007, 2010, 2014).

Kees van der Pijl: Nomads, Empires, States (Pluto 2007).

Kees van der Pijl, 1984: The Making of an Atlantic Ruling Class. Verso. 

Heartland Theory

Halford Mackinder (1861-1947) - Heartland Theory - pivot zone
In 1904 Mackinder formulated the Heartland Theory: ... "Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; Who rules the World Island commands the World. (Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality, p. 150).
The Heartland Theory and more generally classical geopolitics and geostrategy were influential in the making of US strategic policy during the period of the Cold War.

The World-Island, comprising the interlinked continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Intermediate Region  
... the "Intermediate Region" roughly covers Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa.

Sempa, F.P. (2000) "Mackinder's World"
Describes the background to Mackinder's thinking and its influence on geo-strategic thinking.

The geographical pivot of history and early twentieth century geopolitical culture
Pascal Venier 2004. 
...  international relations and strategic debates of the early twentieth
century. ...  Identifying a trend towards a shift in the equilibrium between land power and sea power.

Dodds K 2000: Geopolitics in a changing world. Prentice Hall, Harlow. 

Parker G 1985: Western geopolitical thought in the twentieth century
Croom Helm, London.

Parker W H 1982: Mackinder: geography as an aid to statecraft
Clarendon Press, Oxford.

Abishur Prakash is a geopolitical futurist focused on how  AI and more, will transform geopolitics. ... 

Global Politics

The Long and the Short of Global Politics in the Twenty-First Century: An Evolutionary Approach
George Modelski and William R. Thompson
International Studies Review
Vol. 1, No. 2, Prospects for International Relations: Conjectures about the Next Millennium (Summer, 1999), pp. 109-140. ... 

Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies 
... understanding of how economic and geopolitical forces interact to shape the world. ...

The Problem With China’s Digital Protectionism 
... China seeks global dominance in several high-tech sectors. ... 

Euro-Mediterranean Area

Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Quantification based on the GEM-E3 model. 
Scenarios Assessment and Transitions towards a Sustainable Euro-Mediterranean in 2030.

Research Department “Labour Markets and Human Resources"

Økonomi og geopolitik

The Future of Industry 
The Factory-Free Economy: Outsourcing, Servitization, and the Future of Industry
Lionel Fontagné and Ann Harrison eds. Oxford. OUP 2017. ... 

Global supply chains (GSCs)
Baldwin, Richard 2012: Global supply chains: Why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going. CEPR discussion paper 9103.
The paper suggest that future of global supply chains will be influenced by:
1: coordination technology
2: computer integrated manufacturing
3: narrowing of wage gaps
4: the price of oil that raises the cost of unbundling. ... 

The TOSP framework 
Baldwin in: Fontagné and Ann Harrison eds. Oxford. OUP 2017. P. 50. ... 
TOSP figure ... 

Gary Gereffi