Scenarioplanning - social futures

AI economy

AI funding  
According to one estimate, global AI funding from
tech companies, venture capitalists, and private equity firms was approximately
£20 to £30 billion in 2016 (Bughin et al., 2017). ... pdf

The pace of AI 
progress. In the most authoritative survey of AI expert opinion to date, conducted by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute, the non-profit AI Impacts, and Yale University (Grace et al., 2017). 
... The aggregate view of AI researchers gave a 25% chance of human-level AI in as soon as 20 years, but also a 25% chance that it won’t arrive for 100 years. ... pdf 

Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B. and Evans, O., 2017. When Will AI Exceed Human
Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. arXiv preprint arXiv:1705.08807.

The payback period for robot systems are falling 
Source: Citi Research 2016 ... Work_2.pdf

The Robotics Revolution, The Next Great Leap in Manufacturing
... The prices of hardware and enabling software are projected to drop by more than 20 percent over the next decade.
Robotics use is reaching the takeoff point in many sectors.
The Boston Consulting Group, 2015. ... 

Robots and geopolitics 
Robots will influence national cost competitiveness. Countries that lead in the adoption of robotics will see their manufacturing cost competitiveness improve when compared with the rest of the world. ... 


Data for Business 
Gennem udarbejdelse af en fælles branchestandard, ... vil DataForBusiness kick-starte 500 danske virksomheders konkurrencekraft. ... 

Financial infrastructure

McWaters, R., Galaski, R., & Chatterjee, S. (2016). The future of financial infrastructure: An ambitious look at how blockchain can reshape financial services. In World Economic Forum.

Emerging Technologies with Disruptive Effects: A Review
Article. 2017. ... 


Manufacturing Reshoring from Robotics Hasn’t Happened – Yet, Says Study ... 

China Manufacturing and Robots and OEMs  
China has maintained its competitive advantage in a number of ways. For one thing, it has made enormous investments in infrastructure: raw materials, components, and finished goods travel rapidly and consistently to, from, and within China via a vast web of ports, railways, and highways. None of its competitors come close. Additionally, China’s status as the factory of the world means its factories (and many of its cities) have developed tremendous expertise and specialization. They may have been the cheapest before, but now they’re the most experienced – and sometimes even the most efficient. ... vast automation is the only way China will remain competitive as a manufacturing base for the rest of the world. ... 

Complex Economics

Complexity and the Economy 
W. Brian Arthur 2014. (Oxford University Press; 1 edition (October 30, 2014),
... The complexity framework sees the economy as always in process, always changing.

The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves 
W. Brian Arthur  (2011). Free Press; Reprint edition. January 11, 2011).

Complex Economics: Individual and Collective Rationality (The Graz Schumpeter Lectures) 1st Edition
Alan Kirman (Routledge; 1 edition. September 2, 2010).
... The economy should be considered as a complex adaptive system in which the agents constantly react to, influence and are influenced by, the other individuals in the economy.
Review: ... Kirman offers a socialized view of economics which grounds economic organization in social interaction. ... pdf 

Complexity and Evolution: Toward a New Synthesis for Economics (Strüngmann Forum Reports) 1st Edition
David S. Wilson (Editor, Contributor), Alan Kirman (Editor, Contributor), Julia Lupp (Editor), Rajiv Sethi (Contributor), John E. Mayfield (Contributor), & 35 more. 
The MIT Press; 1 edition (August 19, 2016)

AI economy  
Artificial intelligence industry moves fast: according to PwC, it could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the world economy in 2030. Global GDP will be up to 14% higher as a result of the accelerating development of AI. ... pdf 

AI and blockchain collaboration ... 

Robots create jobs – new research 
Results by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)
In Germany, the rise in the use of machines has allowed employment to grow by 1%. This development looks set to continue in future: based on details from companies surveyed, the ZEW estimates that further automation and digitalisation in industry will generate a 1.8% rise in employment by 2021.

Robot density  
At 309 units per 10,000 employees, robot density in German manufacturing industry is the third highest worldwide.

The London School of Economics (LSE) study entitled Robots at Work
Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels 2018

Future Possibilities of War  
America and the Future of War: The Past as Prologue Examines What History Suggests about the Future Possibilities and Characteristics of War
... Williamson Murray, explains why America must remain prepared to use its military power to deal with an unstable, uncertain, and fractious world. ... 

Cheap Fights, Credible Threats: The Future Of Armed Drones And Coercion 
... technological advances will soon enable drones to function in hostile environments. ... 

The Future Of Tech Policy  
1: Privacy. Facebook ... 
2: Market power: Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.
3: Control of information: Disrupted print journalism 
4: Concentration of wealth and political backlash.
5: National security and national economic interests. ... 

Should You Be Optimistic About America's Future?  
How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life: An Unexpected Guide to Human Nature and Happiness, by Russ Roberts
Adam Smith: The Theory of Moral Sentiments. 
Podcast: Q&A with Russ Roberts:

Future, subjects on ... 

The Coming Wave of Climate Displacement  
At last count, there were some 258 million migrants worldwide, with 22.5 million people registered as refugees by the UN Refugee Agency. ... Syria – one of the greatest sources of human displacement today – began after successive droughts pushed Syrians from rural areas into cities. ... 

Managing the Risks of a Rising Dollar ... 

China and the Future of Democracy  
... The indicators of China’s rise are clear. China is poised to overtake the United States in terms of aggregate GDP within two decades ... but ... An authoritarian regime has no political automatic adjustment mechanism.
Barry Eichengreen 2018 His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era. ... 
Renminbi Internationalization - Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges
Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the “redback.”

Økonomi og teknologi

Økonomi og blockchain

China Becomes First Country in the World to Test a National Cryptocurrency ... ... 
China’s Central Bank Has Begun Cautiously Testing a Digital Currency ...

From SWIFT to blockchain   
Banks are beginning to move away from SWIFT, a global financial messaging network, to blockchain based payments.

Fintech China World  
Cooperation btw  China & the World in  #Fintech #Blockchain #AI #RPA

Andy Hines, integrating foresight into corporations

Hines, Andy 2015: Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, 2nd edition (co-author: Peter C. Bishop). 

Hines, Andy 2012: Teaching about the Future, (co-author: Peter C. Bishop).
(Received Award for Methods and Practice).

Hines, Andy 2011: ConsumerShift: How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape.

The Firm

The question is whether the costs of transacting decreases as fast as the costs of organizing
John Seely Brown ... Some have suggested that diminishing transaction costs will make the coordination role of the firm irrelevant (Downes and Mui, 1998). 
This is not Coase’s view: “If transaction costs were the only factor, then we would [become an economy of individual entrepreneurs]. But the fact of the matter is the cost of organizing is decreasing too. The question is whether the costs of transacting decreases as fast as the costs of organizing. My guess is that sometimes it does and sometimes it does not.” [R.H. Coase, “Talking about Tomorrow,” interview in The Wall Street Journal, special issue, Jan 1, 2000, quoted in Odlyzko, 2000, p. 41.]

John Seely Brown  
Director of the Xerox PARC research center (1990 – June 2000)

John Seely Brown: "The Future of Knowledge Sharing ... 

John Seely Brown, Douglas Thomas, A New Culture of Learning: Cultivating the Imagination for a World of Constant Change, CreateSpace 2011.

John Seely Brown, John Hagel III, Lang Davison, The Power of Pull: How Small Moves, Smartly Made, Can Set Big Things In Motion, Basic Books 2010.

John Seely Brown, Stephen Denning, Katalina Groh, Laurence Prusak, Storytelling in Organizations: Why Storytelling Is Transforming 21st Century Organizations and Management, Butterworth-Heinemann 2004. 

The Nature of the Firm

Jeremy Rifkin

The Zero Marginal Cost Society ... 

Jeremy Rifkin 
The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism 
... Jeremy Rifkin describes how the emerging Internet of Things is speeding us to an era of nearly free goods and services, precipitating the meteoric rise of a global Collaborative Commons and the eclipse of capitalism. ... 

Ulrich Beck

The Brave New World of Work 1st Edition by Ulrich Beck

The Future of Social Theory, redigeret af Nicholas Gane
Chapter 8: Ulrich Beck: The cosmopolitan turn.  ... What is globalization? ... methodological nationalism ... ... 

Making Our Futures: Sociological Knowledge and Social Change  
Introductory Sociology pp 79-81. Tony Bilton et al. ... 

The Metamorphosis of the World 
The posthumous text of sociologist Ulrich Beck is a tool necessary to understand and address the challenges on the horizon. Let's read together ... 

Metamorphosis of the image of the world
“the metamorphosis of the world includes the metamorphosis of the image of the world, which in turn has two dimensions: the metamorphosis of general framing and metamorphosis of practice and taking action.”

cosmopolitan communities of risk or communities of destiny. ... 


The National Association for Business Economics 

AI And Blockchain

AI And Blockchain: 4 Highly Promising Projects To Keep An Eye On
By Jorn van Zwanenburg 2018 
1: SingularityNET founded by Dr. Ben Goertzel.
2: DeepBrain Chain (DBC) on the NEO blockchain. (YouTube)
3: Numerai is a blockchain-powered, AI-coordinated hedge fund.
4: Matrix AI Network,  smart contracts and machine learning services.
    The Matrix platform is involved in China’s Belt and Road initiative.

Ben Goertzel 
Ben is the creator of the robot Sophia.
The Global AI Network
SingularityNET lets anyone create, share, and monetize AI services at scale.

Bazhal, ​Iurii 2017: The Political Economy of Innovation Development: Breaking the Vicious Cycle of Economic Theory
... Bazhal develops Schumpeter's theory to argue that genuine economic growth - especially in transitioning and developing countries - is only possible with innovation ... ... ...